Asbury Automotive Group (ABG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$212.38-0.25%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Asbury trades cheap with a PE of 7.8 versus peers at 17.3. Analysts expect revenue growth of about 3.4% next year. The CEO change may improve management and operations. New dealership support center could boost efficiency.
Operating income fell from $234M to $194M in the last year. Cash from operations slightly declined to $223M. Profit margins barely improved, showing weak cost control. Earnings missed estimates last quarter.
The price is about 45% below our fair value near $381. The market expects modest 3% revenue growth. Our fair value is much higher than the Street median of $220.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $223 million next year
Breaks if: Gross profit falls below $727 million next year
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $194 million next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
ABG represents a durable compounder in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent financial performance, although it faces challenges from sector dynamics and execution quality.
The market currently prices ABG as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully anticipate the potential risks and rewards associated with the company's performance.
Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results in the near term. Management is on track with key priorities, such as the Tekion dealer management system rollout, but operational efficiency and margin improvements are still in progress.
The thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results of major competitors like CVNA, PAG, and KMX. Additionally, inflation trends and their impact on consumer spending will be crucial for ABG's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. Aggressive buybacks and capital allocation optimization also reinforce this positive outlook. There are no new threats impacting the assessment.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue efforts to improve operational efficiency to enhance profitability.
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 3.4% in FY27
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ABG's performance will depend on its execution and broader sector trends. Not investment advice.