Asbury Automotive Group (ABG)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$172.65-0.45%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Asbury Automotive Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

30.36 → 29.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.57B
EPS	—	6.953
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	17.6B
EPS	—	25.537
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	18.33B
EPS	—	29.02

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations stays near or above $223M	A supporting condition in Asbury Automotive Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $223 million.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $223 million next year	Cash from operations: $129.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $223 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026129,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit stays near or above $727M	A primary condition in Asbury Automotive Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $727 million.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $727 million next year	Gross profit: $753.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $727 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026753,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c0d1c786-c619-435c-b1bd-235c35cf996d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income stays near or above $194M	A primary condition in Asbury Automotive Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $194 million.	Intact	Operating income falls below $194 million next year	Operating income: $219.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $194 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026219,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c0d1c786-c619-435c-b1bd-235c35cf996d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 3.4% next year	Analysts expect revenue growth of about 3.4% next year.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 3.4% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$29.02

$29.40 → $29.02 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$18.33B

$18.85B → $18.33B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$29.40	$18,848,562,260	11 / 10
2026-07-25	$29.40	$18,848,562,260	11 / 10
2026-07-26	$29.40	$18,848,562,260	11 / 10
2026-07-27	$29.40	$18,848,562,260	11 / 10
2026-07-28	$29.40	$18,848,562,260	11 / 10
2026-07-29	$29.74	$18,792,368,760	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$29.74	$18,792,368,760	11 / 10
2026-07-31	$30.17	$18,670,430,530	11 / 10
2026-08-01	$30.17	$18,670,430,530	11 / 10
2026-08-02	$30.17	$18,670,430,530	11 / 10
2026-08-03	$30.17	$18,670,430,530	11 / 10
2026-08-04	$30.17	$18,670,430,530	11 / 10
2026-08-05	$30.17	$18,670,430,530	11 / 10
2026-08-06	$30.22	$18,570,591,110	11 / 10
2026-08-07	$30.22	$18,570,638,290	11 / 10
2026-08-08	$30.27	$18,581,294,540	11 / 10
2026-08-09	$30.27	$18,581,294,540	11 / 10
2026-08-10	$30.27	$18,581,294,540	11 / 10
2026-08-11	$30.41	$18,548,837,816	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$30.27	$18,581,294,540	11 / 10
2026-08-13	$30.27	$18,581,294,540	11 / 10
2026-08-14	$30.41	$18,548,837,816	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$30.41	$18,548,837,816	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$30.41	$18,548,837,816	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$30.41	$18,548,837,816	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$30.41	$18,548,837,816	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$30.41	$18,548,837,816	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$30.41	$18,548,837,816	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$30.36	$18,536,537,058	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$30.36	$18,536,691,202	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$30.36	$18,536,702,614	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$29.99	$18,499,967,882	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$29.81	$18,490,968,175	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$29.81	$18,490,968,175	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$29.61	$18,433,027,470	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$29.61	$18,433,027,470	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$29.45	$18,407,683,026	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$29.45	$18,407,683,026	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$29.45	$18,407,683,026	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$29.45	$18,407,683,026	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$29.45	$18,407,683,026	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$29.32	$18,362,947,386	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$29.32	$18,362,947,386	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$29.02	$18,327,089,759	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$29.02	$18,327,089,759	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$29.02	$18,327,089,759	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$29.02	$18,327,089,759	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$29.02	$18,327,089,759	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$29.02	$18,327,089,759	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$29.02	$18,327,089,759	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	7	1
2026-06-01	3	7	1
2026-07-01	4	7	1
2026-08-01	3	7	1
2026-09-01	4	7	1
2026-10-01	4	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 7 · prior Jul 29

$250.00 → $193.00-22.8%

Morgan StanleyOct 5 · prior May 7

$220.00 → $184.00-16.4%

$0$137.50$275.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations stays near or above $223MCash from operations: $129.4M
Gross profit stays near or above $727MGross profit: $753.1M
Operating income stays near or above $194MOperating income: $219.5M
Revenue grows at least 3.4% next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Asbury Automotive Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ABG is a cyclical, value-oriented business whose results are exposed to consumer spending and broader economic growth. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and recent performance evidence is mixed.

What's priced into Asbury Automotive Group

The valuation evidence points to ABG being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative. The pricing is described as justified, with low fragility, rather than reflecting a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the miss risk is assessed as low, though recent quarters included misses and a deep miss in the company’s history. Management is progressing with the Tekion rollout, while gross profit rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026 as gross margin slipped slightly. Capital allocation execution is mixed, and recent financial performance is holding in the top half of the industry.

What Asbury Automotive Group hinges on

Over the next few quarters, results at sector bellwethers CVNA, PAG, and KMX may signal whether sector momentum is strengthening or fading. A material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.2%, especially below 2%, would be a risk because the sector is growth-sensitive. The multi-year view also depends on completing the Tekion rollout and improving efficiency without further margin pressure.