Reading AAP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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Track AAP free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If AAP cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $60.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $60 AAP trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $54–$65. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.82 → $0.80 (-2.5% / 30d). 6 raised, 12 cut, 23 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 12% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$209.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$506.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,143.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in customer demand and hurt revenue growth expectations.
Confirms:Q2 store sales growth was below 1%.
Disproves:Q2 store sales growth was above 2%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AAP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 21, 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release setting forth its financial results for its first quarter ended April 25, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report and is hereby incorporated by reference in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$54.00 – $65.00 (median $60.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q2, 2024-Q3, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | elevated |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to allocate approximately $300 million for capital expenditures in 2026.
Aim to generate approximately $100 million in free cash flow for the fiscal year 2026.
Set a revenue target range of $8,485 million to $8,575 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: More spending may show growth plans or money issues.
Confirms one read:Spending was above $300 million.
Confirms the other:Spending was below $300 million.
Why it matters: A lower margin shows trouble with costs and profits.
Confirms:Q2 income margin was below 3.8%.
Disproves:Q2 income margin was above 4.5%.
Why it matters: Falling free cash flow could indicate financial stress and limit growth investments.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported below $100 million for the year.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported above $100 million for the year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 9, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Cynthia T. Jamison to the Board, effective March 9, 2026. There is no arrangement or understanding with any person pursuant to which Ms. Jamison was appointed as a director, and she will receive compensation for service as a director in acco…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 13, 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release setting forth its financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended January 3, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report and is hereby incorporated by reference in this