Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-29
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put AAP beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Operating margin stays near 4.15% in FY26: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 39% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAAP’s recent earnings performance supports the thesis, though fragile cash backing limits confidence. Recent performance is strong, with consecutive quarterly earnings beats. The latest, Q2 FY2026, beat consensus by 27.2%. AAP trades at 13× P/E versus a 15× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our view forecasts. Weak cash backing risks leaving reported profits unsupported. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 23%. Operating margin stays near 4.15% in FY26, but that comparison needs review. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades. The thesis is on watch; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. AAP is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 26 analysts currently covering AAP (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for AAP in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAP Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automotive Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put AAP next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Drive comparable store sales growth of 1.0% to 2.0% in 2026
Best quarter supports sales growth objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $45.73
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $45.73.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.

Threatens: Expand adjusted operating income margin to 3.8% - 4.5% in 2026
Profit increase without business growth raises margin concerns.

Threatens: Drive comparable store sales growth of 1.0% to 2.0% in 2026
Comp sales miss indicates difficulty in achieving growth targets.

Valuation concerns suggest potential cash flow issues.

Valuation concerns suggest potential cash flow issues.

Price target cut indicates weaker growth expectations.

Threatens: Drive comparable store sales growth of 1.0% to 2.0% in 2026
Weak comps hinder growth in comparable store sales.

Threatens: Drive comparable store sales growth of 1.0% to 2.0% in 2026
Demand concerns hinder ability to drive sales growth.
