CarMax, Inc. (KMX)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$51.55-2.66%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CarMax, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+14.7% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.13 → 3.59 EPS · FY ending Feb 28, 2028 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	6.58B
EPS	—	0.429
Quarter ending 2027-02-28
Revenue	—	6.49B
EPS	—	0.374
Annual ending 2027-02-28
Revenue	—	28.69B
EPS	—	3.188
Annual ending 2028-02-28
Revenue	—	29.47B
EPS	—	3.592

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase CarMax Auto Finance penetration to at least 43.3% and improve profitability	A supporting condition in CarMax, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is CAF penetration >=43.3% and income stable or growing.	Under Pressure	CAF penetration falls below 41% or income declines more than 5% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. CAF income rose 32.1% to $135.6M in 2026-Q3, though CAF financed units declined slightly from 42.6% to 40.9%. Management highlighted CAF’s growth in Tier 2 lending and profitability expansion, showing delivering mixed but positive progress on CAF profitability and penetration. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain prudent capital allocation with readiness to repurchase shares	A supporting condition in CarMax, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain $1.3 billion repurchase capacity and resume buybacks when appropriate.	Intact	No repurchases and no capital return plan for next 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management paused share repurchases through 2026-Q3 but plans to resume modest repurchases in 2026-Q4 with $1.31B authorization remaining unchanged. The capital allocation stance is consistent and prudent with readiness to repurchase shares. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 6% year-over-year to about $8 billion in Q2 2026	CarMax grows revenue about 6% yearly, reaching $8 billion in Q2 2026.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year	Revenue growth: 19.46% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth to $8.0 billion. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Sep 30, 202619.458491 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Aug 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2fd779cb-dd5b-4b47-8c25-55917d2e9825. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $6.6B in 2026-Q2 to $7.9B in 2026-Q3 (+19.5%), with unit sales up 14.7% and EPS up 81.3%. Management consistently emphasized the Shift into GEAR four-pillar strategy and the financial results show delivering early progress against it. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve $200 million SG&A expense reductions by FY27	A primary condition in CarMax, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is SG&A expenses reduced by $200 million by FY27.	Under Pressure	SG&A expense savings fall short of $150 million by FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. SG&A expenses rose 4.6% to $628.6M in 2026-Q3 but SG&A per unit improved 8.8% to $1,621, reflecting ongoing cost reduction efforts. Management consistently reiterated the $200M SG&A reduction target for FY27, showing delivering progress on cost discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-28 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.59

$3.10 → $3.59 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$29.47B

$27.51B → $29.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.10	$27,508,181,470	11 / 13
2026-07-25	$3.10	$27,508,181,470	11 / 13
2026-07-26	$3.08	$27,636,026,901	12 / 13
2026-07-27	$3.08	$27,636,026,901	12 / 13
2026-07-28	$3.08	$27,636,026,901	12 / 13
2026-07-29	$3.08	$27,636,026,901	12 / 13
2026-07-30	$3.08	$27,636,026,901	12 / 13
2026-07-31	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-01	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-02	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-03	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-04	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-05	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-06	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-07	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-08	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-09	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-10	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-12	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-13	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-14	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-15	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-16	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-17	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-18	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-19	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-20	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-21	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-22	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-23	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-24	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-25	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-26	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-27	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-28	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-29	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-30	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-08-31	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-09-01	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-09-02	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-09-03	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-09-04	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-09-05	$3.11	$27,722,560,234	12 / 13
2026-09-06	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-07	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-08	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-09	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-10	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-11	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-12	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-13	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-14	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-15	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-16	$3.11	$27,722,554,074	12 / 13
2026-09-17	$3.10	$27,731,400,741	12 / 13
2026-09-18	$3.10	$27,731,400,741	12 / 13
2026-09-19	$3.10	$27,731,400,741	12 / 13
2026-09-20	$3.10	$27,766,134,074	12 / 13
2026-09-21	$3.10	$27,766,134,074	12 / 13
2026-09-22	$3.12	$27,865,074,437	12 / 13
2026-09-23	$3.13	$27,876,362,545	12 / 13
2026-09-24	$3.13	$27,876,362,545	12 / 13
2026-09-25	$3.19	$28,223,800,362	12 / 12
2026-09-26	$3.19	$28,307,282,289	12 / 14
2026-09-27	$3.19	$28,307,282,289	12 / 14
2026-09-28	$3.19	$28,307,282,289	12 / 14
2026-09-29	$3.21	$28,266,038,445	13 / 14
2026-09-30	$3.47	$29,057,706,631	13 / 14
2026-10-01	$3.55	$29,335,072,965	13 / 14
2026-10-02	$3.55	$29,335,072,965	13 / 14
2026-10-03	$3.55	$29,335,072,965	13 / 14
2026-10-04	$3.54	$29,347,518,404	13 / 14
2026-10-05	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-06	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-07	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-08	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-09	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-10	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-11	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-12	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-13	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-14	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-15	$3.57	$29,417,346,298	13 / 14
2026-10-16	$3.59	$29,470,589,731	13 / 14
2026-10-17	$3.59	$29,470,589,731	13 / 14
2026-10-18	$3.59	$29,470,589,731	13 / 14
2026-10-19	$3.59	$29,470,589,731	13 / 14
2026-10-20	$3.59	$29,470,589,731	13 / 14
2026-10-21	$3.59	$29,470,589,731	13 / 14
2026-10-22	$3.59	$29,470,589,731	13 / 14
2026-10-23	$3.59	$29,470,589,731	13 / 14
2026-10-24	$3.59	$29,470,589,731	13 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	14	4
2026-06-01	3	14	4
2026-07-01	3	14	4
2026-08-01	4	14	2
2026-09-01	3	15	2
2026-10-01	5	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades9 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15 · prior Sep 30

$62.00 → $65.00+4.8%

Truist FinancialSep 30 · prior Jun 18

$50.00 → $60.00+20.0%

Robert W. BairdSep 30 · prior Jun 18

$55.00 → $70.00+27.3%

RBC CapitalSep 30 · prior Jun 18

$45.00 → $56.00+24.4%

Morgan StanleySep 30 · prior Sep 23

$47.00 → $53.00+12.8%

BarclaysSep 30 · prior Jul 21

$61.00 → $67.00+9.8%

StephensSep 25 · prior Jun 18

$66.00 → $74.00+12.1%

$0$40.70$81.40

7 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase CarMax Auto Finance penetration to at least 43.3% and improve profitabilityPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain prudent capital allocation with readiness to repurchase sharesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows at least 6% year-over-year to about $8 billion in Q2 2026Revenue growth: 19.46%
Achieve $200 million SG&A expense reductions by FY27Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Dec 17, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CarMax, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround-style business thesis, with management working to improve growth, costs, and auto finance profitability. The thesis is still in watch status: recent results show some progress, but earnings quality is fragile and performance remains weak.

What's priced into CarMax, Inc.

Valuation is neutral, and KMX trades at a modest premium to peers. The evidence says expectations are broadly aligned with the business setup, rather than reflecting the full combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and turbulent conditions; confidence in that assessment is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the September earnings beat and recent growth provide evidence of progress, while the next call’s guidance and a history of a deep earnings miss remain risks. Across the multi-year view, revenue growth and lower SG&A per unit support management’s strategy, but CAF’s lower share of financed units makes its progress mixed.

What CarMax, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on continued execution of the four-pillar strategy and progress toward the FY27 SG&A reduction goal. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while results and guidance from sector peers such as CVNA, PAG, and LAD could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.