Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$61.28-2.95%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 25, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sonic Automotive, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-5.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.65 → 7.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 25, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.04B
EPS	—	1.6
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	15.7B
EPS	—	6.657
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	16.39B
EPS	—	7.22

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute $500 million share repurchase program	A supporting condition in Sonic Automotive, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase $500 million shares.	Intact	No meaningful buybacks executed by end of 2026-Q1	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit near $1.35 per unit sold	Profit margins should stay near 1.35 dollars per unit sold.	Intact	Gross margin falls below $1.3 per unit in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue growth near consensus	A primary condition in Sonic Automotive, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4.6% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 4.6% in FY26	Revenue growth: 7.57% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20267.568632 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 25, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 83af6847-d4c6-4bbc-8a38-46f796786037. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.22

$7.60 → $7.22 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$16.39B

$16.27B → $16.39B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.60	$16,269,364,040	11 / 11
2026-07-25	$7.60	$16,269,364,040	11 / 11
2026-07-26	$7.60	$16,269,364,040	11 / 11
2026-07-27	$7.59	$16,252,674,681	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$7.60	$16,269,364,040	11 / 11
2026-07-29	$7.60	$16,269,364,040	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$7.62	$16,252,674,681	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$7.63	$16,272,189,810	11 / 11
2026-08-01	$7.66	$16,255,783,016	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$7.72	$16,326,928,900	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-04	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-08	$7.60	$16,400,532,850	11 / 11
2026-08-09	$7.60	$16,400,532,850	11 / 11
2026-08-10	$7.60	$16,400,532,850	11 / 11
2026-08-12	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$7.60	$16,400,532,850	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$7.73	$16,342,023,016	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$7.65	$16,449,313,129	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$7.60	$16,456,898,937	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$7.55	$16,456,898,937	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$7.47	$16,451,639,546	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$7.32	$16,432,570,276	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$7.32	$16,432,570,276	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$7.32	$16,432,570,276	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$7.28	$16,447,380,277	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$7.28	$16,447,380,277	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$7.28	$16,447,380,277	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$7.28	$16,447,380,277	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$7.28	$16,447,380,277	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$7.18	$16,397,712,140	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$7.18	$16,397,712,140	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$7.22	$16,387,306,540	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$7.22	$16,387,306,540	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$7.22	$16,387,306,540	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$7.22	$16,387,306,540	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$7.22	$16,387,306,540	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$7.22	$16,387,306,540	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$7.22	$16,387,306,540	7 / 8
2026-10-25	$7.22	$16,387,306,540	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	4	1
2026-06-01	7	5	1
2026-07-01	6	6	1
2026-08-01	6	6	2
2026-09-01	6	4	2
2026-10-01	6	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 26–Oct 25 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 7 · prior Jul 10

$109.00 → $74.00-32.1%

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Aug 19

$87.00 → $75.00-13.8%

Morgan StanleyOct 5 · prior May 7

$72.00 → $57.00-20.8%

$0$59.95$119.90

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 26, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $500 million share repurchase programRequired source inputs unavailable
Gross profit near $1.35 per unit soldDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain revenue growth near consensusRevenue growth: 7.57%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sonic Automotive, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SAH is a multi-year operating-growth story with support from expanding Powersports and EchoPark businesses. The thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Sonic Automotive, Inc.

The evidence describes SAH as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear below the model’s view. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility because the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence is not present.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, Powersports revenue and EchoPark volume and gross profit are growing, and management says both priorities are on track. Recent earnings beats support the business picture, but a guidance cut or continued peer misses could create pressure; the available evidence does not establish a clear multi-year earnings path.

What Sonic Automotive, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management continuing to grow Powersports and EchoPark while maintaining profitability and disciplined capital allocation. Near term, the next guidance update and results from sector bellwethers such as CVNA, PAG, and KMX are key swing factors.