Reading JACK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JACK free→Reading JACK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JACK free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, JACK trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 80% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If JACK cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 JACK trades at 4× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $63 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $12–$23. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 79% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.24x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.95 → $0.91 (-4.9% / 30d). 4 raised, 12 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 22% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$287.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$714.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,224.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Jack in the Box is managing its losses.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a smaller loss than expected.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Guidance and target cuts indicate potential operational issues.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 12, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. (the "Company") and a wholly owned subsidiary, Jack in the Box Funding, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the "Master Issuer"), Jack in the Box SPV Guarantor, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company ("Jack in the Box SPV Guarantor"), Different Rules, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company ("Different Rules"), and Jack in the Box Properties, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company ("Jack in the Box Properties" and, together w…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$12.00 – $23.00 (median $15.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JACK Jack in the Box, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to maintain its Adjusted EBITDA guidance range for fiscal year 2026.
The company plans to allocate $45 to $55 million in capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026.
The company aims to maintain a company-owned restaurant level margin of 17 to 18% for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Consumer spending trends will impact Jack in the Box's sales and overall performance.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows an increase in consumer spending.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decrease in consumer spending.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. By Current Report on Form 8-K, dated May 13, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. (the “Company”) previously disclosed that Lance Tucker ceased serving as the Company’s Chief Executive Officer effective May 8, 2026. In connection with finalizing separation and consulting arrangements with Mr. Tucker, Mr. Tucker resigned from the Board of Directors of the Com…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Interim Chief Executive Officer Appointment On May 13, 2026, the Company announced the appointment of Mark King to serve as the Company’s Interim Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately. Mr. King has been a director of the Company since November 2025 and has served as Independent Chair of the Board since March 2026. He most recently served f…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 13, 2026, Jack in the Box Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its second quarter fiscal 2026 financial results and disclosing other information. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 13, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Jack in the Box Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Eduardo Luz to the Board as an independent director, effective immediately. Mr. Luz will serve until the Company’s next annual meeting of shareholders or until his successor is duly elected and qualified. Additionally, David Goebel and Madelein…