Jack in the Box, Inc. (JACK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$14.78-2.51%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Jack in the Box aims for $225-$235 million EBITDA in 2026. It targets 17-18% restaurant margins. The company plans $45-$55 million in capital spending. The stock trades cheap with a PE of 5.1.
The company faces pressure from closing 70 restaurants. CEO and key executives recently left. EBITDA and margin targets are at risk due to weak sales.
The price is about 32% below our fair value near $23. Analysts expect 70% revenue growth, which is optimistic given recent cuts.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $225 million in FY26
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $55 million or falls far below $45 million in FY26
Breaks if: Restaurant margin falls below 17% in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with some volatility in management execution. The current thesis is in a cautious state, reflecting recent improvements but also significant risks ahead.
The market appears to price JACK as cheap compared to its peers, indicating that there may be low expectations for future performance. However, the confidence in the valuation model is low, suggesting uncertainty in the market's assumptions.
Fundamentally, JACK has shown strong recent financial performance, but there are risks tied to management execution and sector headwinds. The company is working on its 'JACK on Track' plan, which includes restaurant closures, and has maintained its Adjusted EBITDA guidance.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute its strategic priorities without cutting guidance, as well as external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector leaders. Positive momentum from competitors could also support JACK's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company also strengthened franchisee profitability and execution through technology. Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $225-$230 million was maintained. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, JACK's performance will depend on effective management execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.