Jack in the Box, Inc. (JACK)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.03-3.33%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Jack in the Box, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2027-01-05
Revenue	—	352.5M
EPS	—	1.032
Annual ending 2027-09-28
Revenue	—	1.13B
EPS	—	3.121
Annual ending 2028-09-28
Revenue	—	1.13B
EPS	—	3.337

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain Adjusted EBITDA of $225-$235 million in FY26	Jack in the Box aims for $225-$235 million EBITDA in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $225 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Capex of $45-$55 million in FY26	The company plans $45-$55 million in capital spending.	Intact	Capex exceeds $55 million or falls far below $45 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $9.571M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: <=55 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 20269,571,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 5, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $44.1 million in 2026-Q3 and approximately $27.6 million in the first half of 2026, consistent with the $45 to $55 million annual guidance. Management continues to prioritize sales-driving technology investments, indicating delivery on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain company-owned restaurant margin of 17-18%	A primary condition in Jack in the Box, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=17% margin.	Improving	Restaurant margin falls below 17% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Company-owned restaurant level margin was 16.4% in 2026-Q2 and improved to 17.6% in 2026-Q3, consistent with guidance around 16.5%. Management continues to account for commodity and wage inflation, showing delivery on this operational margin target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue near $1.13 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Jack in the Box, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.1 billion USD.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.1 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-28 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$1.13B

$1.13B → $1.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,128,990,936	2 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,127,595,413	2 / 7
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,127,595,413	2 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,127,595,413	2 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,127,595,413	2 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,127,595,413	2 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,127,595,413	2 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,127,595,413	2 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,127,595,413	2 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,127,595,413	2 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	15	1
2026-06-01	4	14	0
2026-07-01	4	14	0
2026-08-01	4	13	0
2026-09-01	4	13	0
2026-10-01	4	12	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 15

$14.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.70$15.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain Adjusted EBITDA of $225-$235 million in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Capex of $45-$55 million in FY26Capital expenditures: $9.571M
Maintain company-owned restaurant margin of 17-18%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue near $1.13 billion in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-60.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Jack in the Box, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

JACK is a higher-risk restaurant turnaround and execution story, rather than a steady compounder. The multi-year thesis is intact, and the signal has recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but management execution remains volatile.

What's priced into Jack in the Box, Inc.

The evidence describes JACK as cheap versus peers, while the market’s expectations are tagged as justified and valuation-model confidence is low. There is no sign in the evidence of concentrated fragility, but the low-confidence valuation view limits how much can be concluded about the expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, and recent financial performance is in the top half of the industry; adjusted EBITDA also rose from the second to the third quarter of 2026 while fiscal-year guidance was maintained. The restaurant-closure plan is still mixed: restaurant count and systemwide sales both declined in the third quarter, while capital spending remains within annual guidance. Near-term risk is assessed as quiet, though the evidence flags JACK’s smaller size and recent peer misses as reasons for caution.

What Jack in the Box, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year case hinges on whether the JACK on Track plan improves franchise profitability and execution despite restaurant closures and weaker systemwide sales. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM would support the sector backdrop.