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Track CBRL free→Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$43.75+0.60%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Earnings quality is robust, and management's recent track record has been steady. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. The valuation is contingent on the company's ability to maintain earnings momentum and navigate sector trends. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $972.07M
- Employees
- 76,730
- IPO date
- 1999-03-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.75. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$42.97consensus
Range $11.52 – $62.02
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$21.88consensus
Range $19.98 – $75.91
vs price: +100% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $43 CBRL trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $33 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $37–$60. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.3x
peer 1.0x · own history 0.4x
Premium
0.3x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
33%
our forecast -5%
Our fair value
$32.81
range $11.50 – $60.86
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 33% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
27th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 7.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
93rd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +91.6% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.46 → $-0.04 (+91.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.1% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$199.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$536.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,496.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and rose, with the valuation label changing from "full" to "fair." The recent financial performance dimension fell, indicating a weak performance. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, which has not changed. The overall risk dimension is elevated, suggesting ongoing concerns in that area.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for comparable store restaurant sales to stabilize or grow
Why it matters: If comparable store restaurant sales stabilize or grow, it means more customers are coming back. This could help financial health.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Comparable store restaurant sales go up year over year.
Confirms the other:Comparable store restaurant sales go down year over year.
Material event
as of 2026-06-15
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-124d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Revenue guidance for fiscal 2026
Strong Q3 profit supports revenue growth outlook.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting CBRL and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CBRL beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-04-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If CBRL reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-06-09), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping CBRL and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CBRL and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-098d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 9, 2026, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing the Company’s fiscal 2026 third quarter results of operations and projected outlook of certain items for fiscal year 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.