Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$51.15-3.06%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Cracker Barrel beat profit estimates by 163% last quarter. Management raised revenue guidance to about $3.29 billion for fiscal 2026. They also plan to keep capital spending near $110 million. The company is recovering from past problems and improving cash flow.
Revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell significantly last year. Profit margins remain under pressure. The stock trades very high at a PE of 91.7. Analysts expect revenue to shrink about 2% next year.
The price is about 55% above our fair value near $32. Analysts expect about 2% revenue decline. The market prices strong recovery, but we see risks.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $120 million in fiscal 2026
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $115 million or falls below $105 million in fiscal 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a multi-year view. The current thesis state is intact, driven by recent strong financial performance, although management has shown volatility.
The market appears to have priced in an expensive valuation relative to peers, with expectations that may be slightly optimistic. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that some future performance is already anticipated.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, as management is on track to meet or exceed revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. However, risks remain due to potential volatility in management and external economic factors.
The thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain its guidance and manage costs effectively. Additionally, performance of sector bellwethers like MCD and SBUX will be crucial for overall sector momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read on CBRL. Leadership changes may improve food and guest experiences, which is a positive sign. However, the controversy surrounding the CEO's exit raises concerns about leadership stability.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain capital expenditures within the $105M to $115M range for fiscal 2026, focusing on maintenance and no new remodel spending.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance was reduced from $135M-$150M in 2026-Q1 to $105M-$115M in 2026-Q3, reflecting a disciplined approach focusing on maintenance. This guidance has remained stable since 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows disciplined capital allocation consistent with management's stated priority.
“Capital expenditures of $105 million to $115 million (no change vs. previous outlook).”
“Capital expenditures of $105 million to $115 million (vs. previous outlook of $110 million to $125 million).”
“Capital expenditures of $110 million to $125 million (vs. previous outlook of $135 million to $150 million).”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.27 billion in fiscal 2026
In the next 1-3 years, CBRL's performance will depend on management execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.