Reading BLMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BLMN free→Reading BLMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BLMN free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, although BLMN trades above typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 71% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.65. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.65 BLMN trades at 6× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $8.50–$9.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 71% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 12.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.30 (+33.2% / 30d). 12 raised, 0 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 15% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 18.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$274.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$524.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,908.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing now and in the future.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows sales and profit margins are better than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows sales and profit margins are lower than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Closure of restaurants indicates increased competitive pressure.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$8.50 – $9.00 (median $9.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a consistent dividend payout of $0.15 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share remained at $0.15 in 2026-Q1, consistent with previous quarters. The company has consistently maintained this payout, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy.
“The company maintained a dividend payout of $0.15 per share.”
“The company maintained a dividend payout of $0.15 per share.”
“The company maintained a dividend payout of $0.15 per share.”
“The company maintained a dividend payout of $0.15 per share.”
Focus on achieving and maintaining positive net income after previous losses.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income was $55.65 million in 2026-Q1, a significant improvement from losses of $45.86 million in 2025-Q3 and $13.48 million in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows delivering on the priority of achieving positive net income.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and operational improvements.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased to $1.06 billion in 2026-Q1 from $928.81 million in 2025-Q3, showing a positive trajectory in revenue growth. The company is delivering on its priority to increase revenue.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will show how consumer spending affects Bloomin' Brands.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows an increase in consumer spending.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline in consumer spending.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Board Appointment On February 11, 2026 , upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. (the “Company”), the Board increased the size of the Board from ten (10) directors to eleven (11) directors and appointed Colleen Keating as a director of the Company,…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 10, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Committee”) of Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) approved a special retention grant for Michael Spanos, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Spanos will receive performance stock units having a target grant date fair value of $2,000,000, which vest on the thre…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Second Amended and Restated Severance Pay Plan for Salaried Employees Vice President and Above On December 8, 2025, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Committee”) of Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. Second Amended and Restated Severance Pay Plan for Salaried Employees Vice President and…
“Net income was $55.65 million, a significant improvement.”
“Net income was negative $13.48 million.”
“Net income was negative $45.86 million.”
“Revenue increased to $1.06 billion.”
“Revenue was $975.22 million.”
“Revenue was $928.81 million.”