Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$9.04-5.64%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain positive net income above $55 million in Q1 2026: Q2 EPS 0.39 vs target 0.55.
Bloomin' Brands is growing revenue to $1.06 billion in Q1 2026. It made $55.65 million net income in Q1 2026. The company keeps paying a $0.15 dividend per share. These show the turnaround is working.
Closing 21 restaurants may hurt revenue growth. Leadership changes could slow progress. Earnings estimates are soft and may fall.
The price is about 37% below our fair value near $13. Analysts expect only 1% revenue growth. We see more upside if the turnaround succeeds.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.15 in any quarter
Breaks if: Net income falls below $50 million in any quarter
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $3.9 billion in 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on improving guest experience and revenue growth. The current thesis state reflects a cautious optimism as management executes on key priorities while navigating sector headwinds.
The market seems to price BLMN as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some growth is anticipated but not fully reflected. The valuation suggests that investors are not overly optimistic, given the company's recent performance relative to its industry.
Management is on track with its priorities, showing modest revenue growth and improved operating margins. However, the near-term risk remains elevated due to the potential for a miss, especially considering the company's smaller market cap and recent history of performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive growth trajectory. Analysts raised targets on strong revenue growth, indicating confidence in the company's outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The thesis hinges on maintaining execution consistency and managing external pressures, such as inflation and sector performance. Key forward scenarios include the potential for credibility damage if guidance is cut and the influence of major competitors on sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BLMN's prospects depend on effective management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.