Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.20-10.42%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Bloomin' Brands, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.07 → 1.09 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	-$0.27–-$0.22non-GAAP -$0.28–-$0.23	—
comparable restaurant comparable sales growth	1%–2%non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	983.87M
EPS	—	0.143
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.98B
EPS	—	0.968
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.05B
EPS	—	1.089

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payout of $0.15 per share	The company keeps paying a $0.15 dividend per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.15 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2025-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.15 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2025-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Nov 6, 20250.15 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2025-Q3 · Period ending Sep 28, 2025 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1e21ac64-26b4-4e2b-871c-dda02daebe0a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.15 from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2. This shows management is sustaining the dividend payout as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain positive net income above $55 million in Q1 2026	It made $55.65 million net income in Q1 2026.	Under Pressure	Net income falls below $50 million in any quarter	Net income: $31.344M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $55 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202631,344,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2cbb4d15-970b-4c1c-aaa0-7d870ab1da87. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue to at least $3.95 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Bloomin' Brands, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.95 billion.	Under Pressure	Annual revenue falls below $3.9 billion in 2026	Revenue: $1.016B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.95 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261,015,809,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2cbb4d15-970b-4c1c-aaa0-7d870ab1da87. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.09

$0.97 → $1.09 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.05B

$4.03B → $4.05B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.97	$4,030,171,455	7 / 9
2026-07-25	$0.97	$4,030,171,455	7 / 9
2026-07-26	$0.95	$4,030,689,537	7 / 9
2026-07-27	$0.95	$4,030,689,537	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.95	$4,030,689,537	7 / 9
2026-07-29	$0.95	$4,030,688,012	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$0.95	$4,030,688,012	7 / 9
2026-07-31	$0.95	$4,030,688,012	7 / 9
2026-08-01	$0.95	$4,030,688,012	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$0.95	$4,030,688,012	7 / 9
2026-08-03	$0.95	$4,030,688,012	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$0.95	$4,030,688,012	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$0.95	$4,030,688,012	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$0.95	$4,030,688,012	7 / 9
2026-08-07	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-10	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-11	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$1.03	$4,040,251,083	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$1.07	$4,043,978,384	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$1.07	$4,044,323,839	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$1.09	$4,048,516,223	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$1.09	$4,048,516,223	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$1.09	$4,048,516,223	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$1.09	$4,048,516,223	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$1.09	$4,048,378,384	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$1.08	$4,047,862,120	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$1.08	$4,047,862,120	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$1.09	$4,048,531,847	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$1.09	$4,048,531,847	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$1.09	$4,048,531,847	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$1.09	$4,048,531,847	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$1.09	$4,048,531,847	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$1.09	$4,048,531,847	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$1.09	$4,048,687,563	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	10	2
2026-06-01	2	9	2
2026-07-01	2	9	2
2026-08-01	2	8	2
2026-09-01	2	8	2
2026-10-01	2	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Veritas Investment ResearchSep 29

$13.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.15$14.30

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payout of $0.15 per shareDividend per share: $0.15 per share
Maintain positive net income above $55 million in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Increase revenue to at least $3.95 billion in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Bloomin' Brands, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a restaurant execution and margin-improvement thesis, rather than a clear durable-growth story. The signal has recently improved to favorable, but the thesis remains on watch because recent financial performance is below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Bloomin' Brands, Inc.

The valuation evidence says BLMN is cheap versus peers, and the priced-in tag is justified, with no identified fragility flags. The expectations gap is negative, which points to restrained expectations, though confidence in the valuation assessment is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, execution has been steady: restaurant-level margins have remained around 14%, and operating margins improved year over year as management cited productivity and cost savings. Revenue declined slightly from Q1 to Q2 2026 but remained above prior-year levels, while management raised full-year U.S. comparable-sales guidance; peer misses and BLMN’s smaller size remain risks.

What Bloomin' Brands, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining the recent guidance increase and continuing to improve guest experience, sales, and margins. A guidance reversal could damage credibility, while stronger or weaker results and guidance from MCD, SBUX, and YUM may signal whether the sector backdrop is helping or fading.