Reading STKS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STKS free→Reading STKS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track STKS free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with STKS trading below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 83% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.86 STKS trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 83% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.48x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.03 → $-0.03 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$221.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$711.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,745.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims can show trends in consumer spending. This impacts restaurant traffic and revenue.
Confirms one read:Weekly claims fell a lot. This shows better employment conditions.
Confirms the other:Weekly claims went up, suggesting worse employment conditions.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STKS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On May 6, 2026, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 29, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
STKS ONE Group Hospitality Inc/The | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to focus on capital-efficient growth by developing new restaurant locations with a cost of $1.5 million or less.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company has not provided specific financial results or milestones related to this priority in the current period. The focus on capital-efficient growth is a strategic direction, but limited substantive delivery is evident so far.
“The company’s continued focus on capital-efficient growth in 2026, with new restaurant Company-owned development to be focused on locations requiring $1.5 million or less to open.”
The company aims to achieve total GAAP revenues between $840 million and $855 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $212.8 million in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the annual target of $840 to $855 million. The trajectory shows recurring focus, but achieving the full-year target requires sustained growth in subsequent quarters.
The company aims to maintain its adjusted EBITDA guidance between $100 million and $110 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has reiterated its adjusted EBITDA guidance of $100 to $110 million for 2026. However, specific quarterly EBITDA figures are not provided, making it difficult to assess progress towards this target. The focus remains consistent, but delivery is unclear.
“Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA... $100 to $110”
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On March 13, 2026, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 28, 2025. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 12, 2026, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (the “Company” or “The ONE Group”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary fourth quarter and full year 2025 sales results. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 23, 2025, the Company and Emanuel Hilario, the Company’s CEO, executed an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Amended and Restated Employment Agreement, dated September 2, 2022, between the Company and Mr. Hilario (the “Original Agreement”). Pursuant to this Amendment: ● The term of the Original Agreement was extended four years to Sep…
Other Events On December 29, 2025, the Company issued a press release providing a development update, including: the Company entering into a development agreement securing development rights for a total of ten restaurants, either Benihana or Benihana Express locations, throughout the Greater San Francisco Bay Area with an experienced operator, which would be a combination of franchised, licensed and joint venture locations; renewal of the Benihana concession agreement at the Mortgage Matchu…
“and reiterating its full year financial targets... $840 to $855”
“2026 Guidance December 27, 2026 Total GAAP revenues $840 to $855”
“Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA (1) $100 to $110”