Reading RAVE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RAVE free→Reading RAVE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RAVE free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may raise concerns. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although RAVE trades above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.40 RAVE trades at 16× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $3.98 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$205.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$483.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,599.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed to medium. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Earnings quality is fragile. Management is stable.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show how retail sales are doing. Strong sales can help Rave's growth.
Confirms:Retail sales growth above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RAVE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. issued a press release discussing financial results of its third fiscal quarter ended March 29, 2026, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RAVE Rave Restaurant Group Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | high |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer spending. Strong GDP can boost Rave's sales outlook.
Confirms:GDP growth above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth below 2% for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: More people filing for unemployment can mean less spending. This can hurt Rave's sales.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise over 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 300,000.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountants. (a) Effective February 10, 2026, Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) dismissed Whitley Penn LLP (“ Whitley Penn ”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. The decision to change accountants was approved by the Audit Committee of the Company’s board of directors. The reports of Whitley Penn on the Company’s financial statements as of and for the fiscal years ended June 29, 2025, and June 30, 2024, did not contain…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 5, 2026, Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. issued a press release discussing financial results of its second fiscal quarter ended December 28, 2025, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 6, 2025, Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. issued a press release discussing financial results of its first fiscal quarter ended September 28, 2025, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On September 25, 2025, Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. issued a press release discussing financial results of its fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended June 29, 2025, a copy of which is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.