Reading PLNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PLNT free→Reading PLNT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PLNT free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral, and compared with sector peers, PLNT is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on whether PLNT can reverse course and raise guidance next quarter, as well as trends among sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $49.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for PLNT right now, so treat our $48 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $47–$175. Not investment advice.
(median $82.50) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-05-20
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.92 → $0.84 (-8.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 16 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$167.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$318.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,124.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well a business is doing. If it falls short, there may be problems with demand or competition.
Confirms:2026 revenue growth reported below 7% for the full year.
Disproves:Revenue growth meets or exceeds 7% for 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PLNT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PLNT Planet Fitness | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | full | elevated |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 26 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to increase its revenue by approximately 7% over 2025 results.
The company plans to increase capital expenditures by 10% to 15% in 2026.
The company targets a system-wide same club sales growth of approximately 1% for 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key measure of member retention and overall business health. If it falls short, it signals deeper issues in attracting and keeping members.
Confirms:System-wide same club sales growth reported at or below 1% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Same club sales growth exceeds 1% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A permanent CFO brings stability and clear plans. Delays in finding one may show bigger management problems.
Confirms one read:Announcement of a permanent CFO hired by the end of Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:No permanent CFO announced by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may signal a change in the growth phase of the sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median for the last two years.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the last two years.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can lower how much people spend. This may affect gym memberships.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Why it matters: More capital spending shows Planet Fitness is investing in growth.
Confirms:Capital spending is expected to rise by 10% to 15% each year.
Disproves:Capital spending is expected to rise less than 10% each year.
Why it matters: Growing membership is important for making money. Slow growth may mean there are problems in the fitness market.
Confirms:Net member growth reported above the previous quarter's numbers in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net member growth remains below Q1 2026 levels.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 16, 2026, Planet Fitness, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its board of directors (the “Board”), upon the recommendation of the Board’s nominating and corporate governance committee, increased its size from nine to ten members and appointed Harmit Singh to fill the vacancy, effective March 16, 2026. Having considered his qualifications…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 9, 2026, Planet Fitness, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the departure of Jay Stasz, Chief Financial Officer, effective March 9, 2026. Mr. Stasz’s departure was not the result of any dispute or disagreement with the Company relating to reported financial statements and related financial results. The Company also announced that Tom Fitzgeral…
In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 9, 2026, Planet Fitness, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its board of directors (the “Board”), upon the recommendation of the Board’s nominating and corporate governance committee, increased its size from eight to nine members and appointed Stephen “Steve” Beard to fill the vacancy, effective February 9, 2026. Having considered his…