Reading BKNG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKNG free→Reading BKNG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKNG free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether BKNG cuts guidance on the next call, which would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $175.72. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $175 BKNG trades at 3× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $220 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $175–$7,746. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.44 → $2.44 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 20 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$159.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$331.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,335.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This shows ongoing problems with travel demand. This is especially true due to the Middle East conflict.
Confirms:Gross bookings growth reported below 4% year over year.
Disproves:Gross bookings growth reported at 4% or higher year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BKNG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Senior Notes On May 11, 2026, Booking Holdings Inc. (the “ Company ”) executed three Officers’ Certificates (the “ Officers’ Certificates ”), in accordance with Sections 2.02 and 10.04 of the Indenture dated August 8, 2017 (the “ Base Indenture ” and, together with the Officers’ Certificates, the “ Indenture ”) between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (as successor in interest to U.S. Bank National Association), as trust…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$175.00 – $7746.00 (median $260.00) · 23 analysts · as of 2026-04-29
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BKNG Booking Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MAR Marriott International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RCL Royal Caribbean Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
HLT Hilton Worldwide | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABNB Airbnb | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | full | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Achieve $550 million in annual run-rate savings through the Transformation Program by the end of 2026.
Continue returning capital to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases.
Enhance the value delivered to travelers and partners through the use of Generative AI.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Senior Notes On May 7, 2026, Booking Holdings Inc. (the “ Company ”) executed an Officers’ Certificate (the “ Officers’ Certificate ”), in accordance with Sections 2.02 and 10.04 of the Indenture dated August 8, 2017 (the “ Base Indenture ” and, together with the Officers’ Certificate, the “ Indenture ”) between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (as successor in interest to U.S. Bank National Association), as trustee (the…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of the Registrant. The information set forth under
Other Events . Senior Notes Offering On May 5, 2026, the Company entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with Citigroup Global Markets Limited, Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities plc, as representatives of the several underwriters named in Schedule II thereto (the “ Underwriters ”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell to the Underwriters €1,900,000,000 aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Booking Holdings Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. Copies of Booking Holdings' consolidated balance sheet at March 31, 2026, consolidated statement of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026, and consolidated statement of cash flows…