Reading CHH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHH free→Reading CHH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHH free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The valuation is influenced by the recent financials and earnings quality, which are showing signs of deterioration. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $112.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $112 CHH trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $92 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $86–$128. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 22% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.97 → $1.95 (-1.0% / 30d). 4 raised, 2 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 19% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$166.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$303.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,745.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher RevPAR shows demand is recovering. This is important for making more money.
Confirms:Q2 RevPAR growth exceeds 1% year over year, indicating a positive trend.
Disproves:If Q2 RevPAR growth is negative or below -2%, it shows demand problems continue.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CHH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 20, 2026, Choice Hotels International, Inc. (the “Company”) announced a leadership transition under which Patrick S. Pacious will step down as the Company’s President & Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”), effective May 20, 2026. Mr. Pacious will serve as an advisor to the Company through August 31, 2026 (the “Transition Period”) to support the l…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$86.00 – $128.00 (median $112.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHH Choice Hotels | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | full | moderate |
BKNG Booking Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MAR Marriott International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RCL Royal Caribbean Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
HLT Hilton Worldwide | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payouts to shareholders.
Focus on growing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Ensure stable operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: A new CEO could change company strategy and impact franchisee relations. This is crucial for future growth.
Confirms one read:A new permanent CEO has been announced. They have a strong history in hospitality.
Confirms the other:If there is no permanent CEO by August 2026, it may cause leadership uncertainty.
Why it matters: More franchise agreements show growth. This boosts confidence in the brand and future revenue.
Confirms:Franchise agreements given out are up by over 20% from last quarter.
Disproves:If franchise agreements awarded drop or grow less than 5%, it may show market issues.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , Choice Hotels International, Inc. issued a press release announcing earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026 , Choice Hotels International, Inc. issued a press release announcing earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 20, 2026, Simone Wu, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, Corporate Secretary & External Affairs of Choice Hotels International, Inc. (the “Company), informed the Company that she intends to retire from her role with the Company in the first half of 2026, remaining in her current role until her successor is appointed and working with…