Reading ABNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ABNB free→Reading ABNB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with ABNB compared to sector peers being below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $138.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $139 the market pays 34× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 33× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $105 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $125–$185. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 32% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.25 → $1.25 (+0.1% / 30d). 24 raised, 1 cut, 30 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.7% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$278.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,154.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue growth below 14% would indicate a slowdown in demand and could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported below 14%.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported above 16%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ABNB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Airbnb, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a Shareholder Letter (the “Letter”) announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. In the Letter, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on May 7, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET to discuss its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Letter is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on F…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$125.00 – $185.00 (median $160.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ABNB Airbnb | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | full | moderate |
BKNG Booking Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MAR Marriott International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RCL Royal Caribbean Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | moderate |
HLT Hilton Worldwide | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on accelerating year-over-year revenue growth to low to mid teens in 2026.
Aim to deliver an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of at least 35% for 2026.
Use net proceeds from offerings to repay $2.0 billion of convertible senior notes due March 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in Nights and Seats Booked growth could signal weakening demand, impacting future revenue.
Confirms:Nights and Seats Booked growth reported below 9% year-over-year.
Disproves:Nights and Seats Booked growth reported above 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Increased adoption of this feature could drive bookings and improve revenue growth.
Confirms:More than 70% of eligible bookings use Reserve Now, Pay Later.
Disproves:Less than 50% of eligible bookings use Reserve Now, Pay Later.
Why it matters: More cancellations in these areas may show bigger travel problems. This can lower total bookings.
Confirms:Cancellations in EMEA and Asia Pacific are much higher than in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Cancellations stay the same or drop in EMEA and Asia Pacific.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Notes Offering On March 12, 2026, Airbnb, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), relating to the public offering (the “Offering”) by the Company of $2.5 billion aggregate principal amount of senior notes, consisting of $85…
Other Events On March 16, 2026, the Company used net proceeds from the Offering to repay $2.0 billion aggregate principal amount of its 0% convertible senior notes due March 2026 upon their maturity.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Airbnb, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a Shareholder Letter (the “Letter”) announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. In the Letter, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on February 12, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET to discuss its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Letter is furni…