Airbnb (ABNB)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$173.70-0.33%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Airbnb’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.23 → 6.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 30 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 31 to 30; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Repay $2.0 billion convertible senior notes	The company repaid $2 billion in convertible notes, improving its balance sheet.	Intact	Convertible notes repayment not completed by 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain Adjusted EBITDA margin at least 35%	A primary condition in Airbnb's published investment case. The stated target is >=35% Adjusted EBITDA margin.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 30% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage regulatory challenges in key markets	A supporting condition in Airbnb's published investment case. The stated target is No material revenue impact from new regulations in FY26.	Intact	New regulations cause >5% revenue decline in FY26	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Accelerate revenue growth to low to mid teens	A primary condition in Airbnb's published investment case. The stated target is >=14% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26	Revenue growth: 16.54% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202616.537468 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: caeff407-11f1-4175-97d8-aed476b033b8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.3B in 2025-Q1 to $3.6B in 2026-Q2 (+17% Y/Y), with guidance for Q3 2026 raised to $4.69B-$4.77B (+15%-17% Y/Y). Management consistently raised revenue growth targets to mid teens for 2026, reflecting delivery and acceleration in growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.26

$6.04 → $6.26 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$15.81B

$15.42B → $15.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.04	$15,424,032,830	39 / 41
2026-07-25	$6.04	$15,430,711,180	39 / 42
2026-07-26	$6.04	$15,430,711,180	39 / 42
2026-07-27	$6.05	$15,439,274,127	29 / 32
2026-07-28	$6.04	$15,430,711,180	39 / 42
2026-07-29	$6.03	$15,429,632,600	39 / 42
2026-07-30	$6.04	$15,438,141,627	29 / 32
2026-07-31	$6.03	$15,430,595,700	39 / 42
2026-08-01	$6.04	$15,439,849,712	29 / 32
2026-08-02	$6.03	$15,430,595,700	39 / 42
2026-08-03	$6.03	$15,430,595,700	39 / 42
2026-08-04	$6.03	$15,430,595,700	39 / 42
2026-08-05	$6.03	$15,430,595,700	39 / 42
2026-08-06	$6.03	$15,430,595,700	39 / 42
2026-08-07	$6.04	$15,435,233,010	40 / 43
2026-08-08	$6.07	$15,526,618,080	38 / 43
2026-08-09	$6.07	$15,526,618,080	38 / 43
2026-08-10	$6.07	$15,526,618,080	38 / 43
2026-08-11	$6.16	$15,689,158,730	40 / 43
2026-08-12	$6.17	$15,719,647,100	40 / 43
2026-08-13	$6.17	$15,719,647,100	40 / 43
2026-08-14	$6.04	$15,438,092,567	30 / 33
2026-08-15	$6.04	$15,438,092,567	31 / 33
2026-08-16	$6.04	$15,438,092,567	31 / 33
2026-08-17	$6.04	$15,438,092,567	31 / 33
2026-08-18	$6.04	$15,438,092,567	31 / 33
2026-08-19	$6.04	$15,438,092,567	31 / 33
2026-08-20	$6.04	$15,438,092,567	31 / 33
2026-08-21	$6.20	$15,749,448,831	31 / 33
2026-08-22	$6.20	$15,749,448,831	31 / 33
2026-08-23	$6.20	$15,749,448,831	31 / 33
2026-08-24	$6.20	$15,749,448,831	31 / 33
2026-08-25	$6.20	$15,751,278,008	31 / 33
2026-08-26	$6.20	$15,751,278,008	31 / 33
2026-08-27	$6.20	$15,751,278,008	31 / 33
2026-08-28	$6.20	$15,751,278,008	31 / 33
2026-08-29	$6.20	$15,751,285,088	31 / 33
2026-08-30	$6.20	$15,751,285,088	31 / 33
2026-08-31	$6.20	$15,751,285,088	31 / 33
2026-09-01	$6.20	$15,751,285,088	31 / 33
2026-09-02	$6.20	$15,760,504,964	31 / 33
2026-09-03	$6.20	$15,760,512,281	31 / 33
2026-09-04	$6.20	$15,760,512,281	31 / 33
2026-09-05	$6.20	$15,760,512,281	31 / 33
2026-09-06	$6.20	$15,760,512,281	31 / 33
2026-09-07	$6.20	$15,760,512,281	31 / 33
2026-09-08	$6.20	$15,760,515,503	31 / 33
2026-09-09	$6.21	$15,769,557,659	31 / 33
2026-09-10	$6.21	$15,769,557,659	31 / 33
2026-09-11	$6.22	$15,777,343,908	31 / 33
2026-09-12	$6.22	$15,777,343,908	31 / 33
2026-09-13	$6.23	$15,786,734,152	31 / 33
2026-09-14	$6.23	$15,786,734,152	31 / 33
2026-09-15	$6.23	$15,786,734,152	31 / 33
2026-09-16	$6.23	$15,786,734,152	31 / 33
2026-09-17	$6.25	$15,800,715,132	31 / 33
2026-09-18	$6.25	$15,800,715,132	31 / 33
2026-09-19	$6.25	$15,800,715,132	31 / 33
2026-09-20	$6.25	$15,805,739,522	31 / 33
2026-09-21	$6.25	$15,805,739,522	31 / 33
2026-09-22	$6.25	$15,805,727,327	31 / 33
2026-09-23	$6.25	$15,805,727,327	31 / 33
2026-09-24	$6.25	$15,805,729,237	31 / 33
2026-09-25	$6.25	$15,805,729,237	31 / 33
2026-09-26	$6.25	$15,805,729,237	31 / 33
2026-09-27	$6.25	$15,805,729,237	31 / 33
2026-09-28	$6.25	$15,805,729,237	31 / 33
2026-09-29	$6.25	$15,805,741,222	31 / 33
2026-09-30	$6.25	$15,805,741,222	31 / 33
2026-10-01	$6.25	$15,805,741,222	31 / 33
2026-10-02	$6.25	$15,805,741,222	31 / 33
2026-10-03	$6.25	$15,805,741,222	31 / 33
2026-10-04	$6.26	$15,814,787,402	31 / 33
2026-10-05	$6.26	$15,814,787,402	31 / 33
2026-10-06	$6.26	$15,814,787,402	30 / 32
2026-10-07	$6.26	$15,814,787,402	30 / 33
2026-10-08	$6.26	$15,812,812,402	30 / 32
2026-10-09	$6.26	$15,812,812,402	30 / 32
2026-10-10	$6.26	$15,812,812,402	30 / 32
2026-10-11	$6.26	$15,812,812,402	30 / 32
2026-10-12	$6.26	$15,810,378,347	30 / 32
2026-10-13	$6.26	$15,810,371,267	30 / 32
2026-10-14	$6.26	$15,810,371,267	30 / 32
2026-10-15	$6.26	$15,810,371,267	30 / 32

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	23	20	2
2026-06-01	24	18	2
2026-07-01	24	20	2
2026-08-01	25	20	3
2026-09-01	27	18	3
2026-10-01	28	16	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 28 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 7 · prior Aug 7

$186.00 → $185.00-0.5%

KeyBancOct 1

$191.00New observation · no comparable prior

China Renaissance Securities (US) Inc.Sep 24

$200.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleySep 16 · prior Jul 30

$125.00 → $170.00+36.0%

$0$110.00$220.00

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Repay $2.0 billion convertible senior notesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain Adjusted EBITDA margin at least 35%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Manage regulatory challenges in key marketsQualitative condition
Accelerate revenue growth to low to mid teensRevenue growth: 16.54%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Airbnb outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin improvement. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has not matched that of its industry peers.

What's priced into Airbnb

The market seems to have priced in a stretched valuation, reflecting high expectations for future performance. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors anticipate strong results despite recent mixed financial outcomes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its revenue growth and margin targets, which could support fundamentals in the multi-year view. However, the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, and while the miss probability is low, recent earnings history shows some volatility.

What Airbnb hinges on

Key factors for ABNB's future include its ability to maintain guidance without cuts, the impact of inflation on consumer spending, and the performance of sector peers like BKNG and RCL. These elements will be crucial in determining the company's trajectory.