Vail Resorts (MTN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-29
$154.53+1.70%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put MTN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 4% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMTN’s appeal rests on recovering guest visits and lift-ticket sales after weak recent results. Fiscal fourth-quarter earnings narrowly beat consensus, following third-quarter revenue down 7% year over year. MTN trades at 37× earnings versus a 23× peer median. Expectations look modest versus our view, despite that valuation premium. The next-quarter miss probability is 32%, and management is behind on a stated commitment. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. MTN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 15 analysts currently covering MTN (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MTN in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare MTN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MTN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Disciplined Capital Allocation and Liquidity Management
Dividend risk impacts liquidity management and capital allocation.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $154.53
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $154.53.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Disciplined Capital Allocation and Liquidity Management
Dividend risk impacts liquidity management and capital allocation.
Threatens: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Plummeting Epic Pass sales threaten guest visitation growth.
Advances: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Projected EBITDA supports growth in lift ticket sales.
Threatens: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Decline in skier attendance impacts ticket sales growth objective.
Advances: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Ancillary spending supports guest visitation and ticket sales growth.
Threatens: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Profit plunge impacts growth objective of ticket sales.
Threatens: Increase Guest Visitation and Lift Ticket Sales
Widening loss due to weather affects growth objective.