NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS of about $8.34 in FY26: EPS guidance mid: $8.34 vs target $8.28-$8.40.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 9% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 46% growth a year, above the roughly 9% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskHilton's growth depends on strong demand in the luxury hotel sector. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) is expected to grow by 3% to 3.5% in 2026. The company recently beat earnings estimates, reporting an EPS of 2.29. It trades at 38 times P/E, which is more than double the peer median of 18 times. The market seems to expect more growth than is realistic. If Hilton cuts guidance, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% below where it trades.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. HLT is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 26 analysts currently covering HLT (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for HLT in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Earnings call confirms growth and capital return targets.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $320.49
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $320.49.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026
Hilton's RevPAR growth aligns with shareholder return goals.
Threatens: Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026
Profit forecast miss raises concerns on capital returns.
Advances: Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026
Increased luxury demand supports unit growth target.
Advances: Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026
Higher revenue outlook boosts growth prospects.
Threatens: Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026
Current-quarter outlook miss impacts capital allocation.
Advances: Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026
Strong luxury demand enhances growth forecast.
Advances: Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026
Beating estimates supports capital return strategy.
