Reading HLT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLT free→Reading HLT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HLT free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 120% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends from bellwethers like MAR and IHG. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $350.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $347 the market pays 41× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 38× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $156 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $312–$371. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 122% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.26 → $2.25 (-0.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 6 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 52% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 7.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$241.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,029.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If RevPAR growth falls below 2.0%, it signals weaker demand trends than expected.
Confirms:Q2 comparable RevPAR growth was below 2.0% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 comparable RevPAR growth was at or above 2.0% compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
New hotel enhances brand loyalty and growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 14, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) at which the Company’s stockholders approved the Hilton Amended and Restated 2017 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the “Plan”) to, among other things, authorize an additional 846,000 shares for issuance under the Plan and exten…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$312.00 – $371.00 (median $350.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HLT Hilton Worldwide | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BKNG Booking Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MAR Marriott International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RCL Royal Caribbean Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
ABNB Airbnb | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | full | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Hilton aims to achieve net unit growth between 6.0% and 7.0% in 2026.
Hilton plans to return approximately $3.5 billion in capital to shareholders in 2026.
Hilton is focusing on launching new brands and forming partnerships to expand its market presence.
Why it matters: Consumer spending impacts hotel stays and earnings. Trends show if demand is going up or down.
Confirms one read:Consumer spending grew over 3% in the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report.
Confirms the other:Consumer spending growth reported below 1% in the same report.
Why it matters: Achieving this growth target would show strong demand for Hilton's brands. It would also support long-term growth plans.
Confirms:Net unit growth reported at 7% or higher by the end of 2026.
Disproves:Net unit growth reported below 6% by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Strong performance from new brands could enhance growth and market presence.
Confirms:New brand metrics show strong performance. They exceeded initial expectations.
Disproves:New brand metrics show weak performance. They fell below expectations.
Why it matters: A capital return below $3.5 billion means less value for shareholders.
Confirms:Total capital return was below $3.5 billion for 2026.
Disproves:Total capital return was at or above $3.5 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in consumer spending can impact Hilton's revenue. The FOMC meeting may signal shifts in economic conditions.
Confirms one read:Good consumer spending data came out after the FOMC meeting on June 17, 2026.
Confirms the other:Bad consumer spending data came out after the FOMC meeting on June 17, 2026.
World Cup boosts tourism, benefiting Hilton.
Softening travel demand poses a risk.
Softening demand impacts growth outlook.
Consumer spending cuts affect travel demand.
Advances: Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026
Expansion of luxury offerings supports growth.
Airbnb's growth poses competitive risks.
High-tech rooms enhance guest experience and brand.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture with respect to 5.500% Senior Notes due 2031 On May 11, 2026, Hilton Domestic Operating Company Inc. (the “Issuer”), an indirect subsidiary of Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), issued and sold $1 billion aggregate principal amount of 5.500% Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”) under an Indenture, dated as of May 11, 2026 (the “Indenture”), by and among the Issuer, the Company, as a guarantor, the other guarantors party thereto…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 5, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Christopher W. Silcock, President, Global Brands & Commercial Services, intends to retire from the Company in the first quarter of 2027. As a result, the Company announced several leadership updates, which will become effective later in 2026 in preparation for Mr. Silcock…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing the results of the Company’s operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished pursuant to