Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

Q: What's priced into Hilton Worldwide (HLT) stock?

The market appears to be pricing in a durable premium for Hilton, reflecting expectations of continued growth and stability. The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with only a slight expectations gap.

Q: What does the Hilton Worldwide (HLT) outlook hinge on?

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth targets, the performance of sector peers, and the broader economic environment, particularly inflation trends. Any negative shifts in guidance or economic conditions could impact sentiment.

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-10-15

$345.12+0.62%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hilton Worldwide’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.39 → 10.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026	It plans to return $3.5 billion to shareholders in 2026.	Intact	capital return falls below $3.0 billion in FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Hilton projected capital return of approximately $3.5 billion for 2026, up from $3.3 billion in 2025. Through July 2026, Hilton returned $2.034 billion including dividends and share repurchases. Management has consistently reiterated this capital return target, and the actual returns year-to-date show progress delivering on this commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustained travel demand supporting revenue growth	A supporting condition in Hilton Worldwide's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= 6% YoY.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 6% YoY in FY26	Revenue growth: 6.5% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= 6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20266.503028 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0468f4f8-6cdf-47aa-b5f4-7e4ba7da2a79. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Hilton reported net unit growth of 6.1% as of 2026-Q2 with 21,600 net room additions that quarter. The development pipeline grew to 541,300 rooms, a 6% increase from 2025-Q2. Management consistently reaffirmed the 6.0% to 7.0% net unit growth target, and the trajectory is delivering with steady room additions and pipeline expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS of about $8.34 in FY26	A primary condition in Hilton Worldwide's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $8.28 and <= $8.40.	Broken	EPS falls below $8.28 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $8.28 and <= $8.40. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20262.1 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0468f4f8-6cdf-47aa-b5f4-7e4ba7da2a79. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026	A primary condition in Hilton Worldwide's published investment case. The stated target is 6.0% to 7.0% net unit growth.	Intact	net unit growth falls below 6.0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Hilton reported net unit growth of 6.1% as of 2026-Q2 with 21,600 net room additions that quarter. The development pipeline grew to 541,300 rooms, a 6% increase from 2025-Q2. Management consistently reaffirmed the 6.0% to 7.0% net unit growth target, and the trajectory is delivering with steady room additions and pipeline expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.37

$10.40 → $10.37 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.14B

$14.13B → $14.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.40	$14,125,904,597	16 / 12
2026-07-25	$10.45	$14,156,145,440	25 / 16
2026-07-26	$10.45	$14,156,145,440	25 / 16
2026-07-27	$10.45	$14,156,145,440	25 / 16
2026-07-28	$10.41	$14,126,904,597	16 / 12
2026-07-29	$10.38	$14,142,808,915	14 / 11
2026-07-30	$10.46	$14,149,487,350	23 / 14
2026-07-31	$10.44	$14,170,064,070	24 / 15
2026-08-01	$10.40	$14,145,059,455	15 / 12
2026-08-02	$10.45	$14,168,864,070	24 / 15
2026-08-03	$10.40	$14,145,059,455	15 / 12
2026-08-04	$10.40	$14,145,059,455	15 / 12
2026-08-05	$10.45	$14,167,330,740	24 / 15
2026-08-06	$10.45	$14,167,330,740	24 / 15
2026-08-07	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	15 / 12
2026-08-08	$10.45	$14,159,926,120	24 / 15
2026-08-09	$10.45	$14,159,926,120	24 / 15
2026-08-10	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	15 / 12
2026-08-12	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	15 / 12
2026-08-13	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	15 / 12
2026-08-14	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	15 / 12
2026-08-15	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	16 / 12
2026-08-16	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	16 / 12
2026-08-17	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	16 / 12
2026-08-18	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	16 / 12
2026-08-19	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	16 / 12
2026-08-20	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-21	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-22	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-23	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-24	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-25	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-26	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-27	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-28	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-29	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-30	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-31	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-09-01	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-09-02	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-09-03	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 13
2026-09-04	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-05	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-06	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-07	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-08	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-09	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-10	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-11	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 14
2026-09-12	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 14
2026-09-13	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 14
2026-09-14	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-15	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-16	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-17	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-18	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-19	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-20	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-21	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-22	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-23	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-24	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-25	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-26	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-27	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-28	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-29	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-30	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-01	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-02	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-03	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-04	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-05	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-06	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-07	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-08	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-09	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-10	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-11	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-12	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-13	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-14	$10.39	$14,151,389,703	17 / 15
2026-10-15	$10.37	$14,138,023,609	17 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	11	1
2026-06-01	13	11	1
2026-07-01	14	11	1
2026-08-01	17	10	1
2026-09-01	17	10	1
2026-10-01	18	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior May 12

$319.00 → $336.00+5.3%

$0$184.80$369.60

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital return of approximately $3.5 billion in 2026Required source inputs unavailable
Sustained travel demand supporting revenue growthRevenue growth: 6.5%
EPS of about $8.34 in FY26Published status: Broken
Net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hilton Worldwide outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through unit expansion and brand innovation. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.

What's priced into Hilton Worldwide

The market appears to be pricing in a durable premium for Hilton, reflecting expectations of continued growth and stability. The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with only a slight expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Hilton's fundamentals are likely to remain strong, driven by consistent unit growth and capital returns. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for earnings guidance cuts and external economic pressures.

What Hilton Worldwide hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth targets, the performance of sector peers, and the broader economic environment, particularly inflation trends. Any negative shifts in guidance or economic conditions could impact sentiment.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, Hilton's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external economic factors. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.37

$10.40 → $10.37 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.14B

$14.13B → $14.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.40	$14,125,904,597	16 / 12
2026-07-25	$10.45	$14,156,145,440	25 / 16
2026-07-26	$10.45	$14,156,145,440	25 / 16
2026-07-27	$10.45	$14,156,145,440	25 / 16
2026-07-28	$10.41	$14,126,904,597	16 / 12
2026-07-29	$10.38	$14,142,808,915	14 / 11
2026-07-30	$10.46	$14,149,487,350	23 / 14
2026-07-31	$10.44	$14,170,064,070	24 / 15
2026-08-01	$10.40	$14,145,059,455	15 / 12
2026-08-02	$10.45	$14,168,864,070	24 / 15
2026-08-03	$10.40	$14,145,059,455	15 / 12
2026-08-04	$10.40	$14,145,059,455	15 / 12
2026-08-05	$10.45	$14,167,330,740	24 / 15
2026-08-06	$10.45	$14,167,330,740	24 / 15
2026-08-07	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	15 / 12
2026-08-08	$10.45	$14,159,926,120	24 / 15
2026-08-09	$10.45	$14,159,926,120	24 / 15
2026-08-10	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	15 / 12
2026-08-12	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	15 / 12
2026-08-13	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	15 / 12
2026-08-14	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	15 / 12
2026-08-15	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	16 / 12
2026-08-16	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	16 / 12
2026-08-17	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	16 / 12
2026-08-18	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	16 / 12
2026-08-19	$10.40	$14,143,526,121	16 / 12
2026-08-20	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-21	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-22	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-23	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-24	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-25	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-26	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-27	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-28	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-29	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-30	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-08-31	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-09-01	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-09-02	$10.39	$14,158,374,997	16 / 13
2026-09-03	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 13
2026-09-04	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-05	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-06	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-07	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-08	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-09	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-10	$10.39	$14,143,226,560	16 / 14
2026-09-11	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 14
2026-09-12	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 14
2026-09-13	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 14
2026-09-14	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-15	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-16	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-17	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-18	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-19	$10.39	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-20	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-21	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-22	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-23	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-24	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-25	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-26	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-27	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-28	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-29	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-09-30	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-01	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-02	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-03	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-04	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-05	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-06	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-07	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-08	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-09	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-10	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-11	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-12	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-13	$10.40	$14,150,507,350	17 / 15
2026-10-14	$10.39	$14,151,389,703	17 / 15
2026-10-15	$10.37	$14,138,023,609	17 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings