Choice Hotels (CHH)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$108.48-3.13%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Choice Hotels’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.50 → 7.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	395.43M
EPS	—	1.614
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.63B
EPS	—	7.008
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.67B
EPS	—	7.485

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain adjusted EBITDA near $632 million in 2026	Profit stays solid with adjusted EBITDA guided near $632 million in 2026.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $600 million in FY 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased from $60 million in 2026-Q1 to $104 million in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA rose 6% year-over-year to $175 million in 2026-Q2. The financials show delivering growth and operational improvement consistent with management's stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Return capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacks	The company returns capital steadily, paying $13 million in dividends quarterly.	Intact	Quarterly capital return falls below $60 million or dividends below $10 million	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company returned $139 million to shareholders year-to-date through 2026-Q2, including dividends and share repurchases. Dividend per share remained steady at $0.2875. The capital return program is consistent with management's stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow global net rooms and franchise agreements	Choice Hotels grows global rooms by 1.7% yearly and boosts franchise deals 72%.	Intact	Global net rooms growth falls below 1.7% YoY or franchise agreements growth falls below 50% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Global net rooms growth improved from 1.7% in 2026-Q1 to 2.6% in 2026-Q2, with franchise agreements awarded up 20% in 2026-Q2. International net rooms grew 12.5% in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering growth aligned with management's stated focus on expanding the global franchise system. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage CEO transition and maintain strategic momentum	A supporting condition in Choice Hotels's published investment case. The stated target is Successful CEO transition with no disruption to strategic execution through 2026.	Intact	CEO transition leads to missed guidance or strategic delays	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 3 quarters. Leadership transitioned from Patrick Pacious to Dom Dragisich as permanent CEO in 2026-Q3 after interim period starting 2026-Q2. Management emphasizes maintaining strategic momentum during transition. The priority is ongoing with mixed delivery given recent leadership change. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.49

$7.61 → $7.49 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.67B

$1.67B → $1.67B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-07-25	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-07-26	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-07-27	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-07-28	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-07-29	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-07-30	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-07-31	$7.60	$1,662,971,697	10 / 9
2026-08-01	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-08-02	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-08-03	$7.60	$1,662,971,697	10 / 9
2026-08-04	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-08-05	$7.60	$1,662,971,697	10 / 9
2026-08-06	$7.61	$1,674,335,330	16 / 11
2026-08-07	$7.47	$1,665,778,809	10 / 9
2026-08-08	$7.48	$1,677,372,560	16 / 11
2026-08-09	$7.47	$1,665,778,809	10 / 9
2026-08-10	$7.48	$1,677,372,560	16 / 11
2026-08-11	$7.47	$1,665,778,809	10 / 9
2026-08-12	$7.47	$1,676,283,790	16 / 11
2026-08-13	$7.47	$1,665,778,809	10 / 9
2026-08-14	$7.47	$1,665,778,809	10 / 9
2026-08-15	$7.47	$1,665,778,809	10 / 9
2026-08-16	$7.47	$1,665,778,809	10 / 9
2026-08-17	$7.47	$1,665,778,809	10 / 9
2026-08-18	$7.47	$1,665,778,809	10 / 9
2026-08-19	$7.47	$1,665,778,809	10 / 9
2026-08-20	$7.44	$1,666,959,414	10 / 9
2026-08-21	$7.44	$1,666,959,414	10 / 9
2026-08-22	$7.44	$1,666,959,414	10 / 9
2026-08-23	$7.44	$1,666,959,414	10 / 9
2026-08-24	$7.44	$1,666,959,414	10 / 9
2026-08-25	$7.44	$1,666,959,414	10 / 9
2026-08-26	$7.44	$1,666,959,414	10 / 9
2026-08-27	$7.44	$1,666,959,414	10 / 9
2026-08-28	$7.44	$1,666,959,414	10 / 9
2026-08-29	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 9
2026-08-30	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-08-31	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-01	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-03	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-04	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-05	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-06	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-07	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-08	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-09	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-10	$7.48	$1,668,263,213	10 / 10
2026-09-11	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-12	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-13	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-14	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-15	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-16	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-17	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-18	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-19	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-20	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-21	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-22	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-23	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-24	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-25	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-26	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-27	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-28	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-29	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-09-30	$7.50	$1,668,346,546	10 / 10
2026-10-01	$7.54	$1,666,997,505	10 / 10
2026-10-02	$7.54	$1,666,997,505	10 / 9
2026-10-03	$7.54	$1,666,997,505	10 / 9
2026-10-04	$7.54	$1,666,997,505	10 / 9
2026-10-05	$7.54	$1,666,997,505	10 / 9
2026-10-06	$7.54	$1,670,743,414	10 / 9
2026-10-07	$7.54	$1,670,743,414	10 / 9
2026-10-08	$7.54	$1,670,743,414	10 / 9
2026-10-09	$7.54	$1,670,743,414	10 / 9
2026-10-10	$7.54	$1,670,743,414	10 / 9
2026-10-11	$7.54	$1,670,743,414	10 / 9
2026-10-12	$7.54	$1,670,743,414	10 / 9
2026-10-13	$7.53	$1,670,743,414	10 / 9
2026-10-14	$7.53	$1,670,743,414	10 / 9
2026-10-15	$7.49	$1,670,598,274	10 / 9
2026-10-16	$7.49	$1,670,598,274	11 / 11
2026-10-17	$7.49	$1,670,598,274	11 / 11
2026-10-18	$7.49	$1,671,001,043	11 / 11
2026-10-19	$7.49	$1,671,001,043	11 / 11
2026-10-20	$7.49	$1,671,156,889	11 / 11
2026-10-21	$7.49	$1,671,011,624	11 / 11
2026-10-22	$7.49	$1,671,956,670	11 / 11
2026-10-23	$7.49	$1,671,956,670	11 / 11
2026-10-24	$7.49	$1,671,956,670	11 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	9	5
2026-06-01	3	8	5
2026-07-01	3	9	5
2026-08-01	3	10	5
2026-09-01	3	10	4
2026-10-01	3	11	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 22 · prior Oct 12

$92.00 → $93.00+1.1%

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Jul 16

$99.00 → $98.00-1.0%

BarclaysOct 16 · prior Aug 6

$102.00 → $103.00+1.0%

$0$56.65$113.30

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain adjusted EBITDA near $632 million in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Return capital to shareholders via dividends and buybacksRequired source inputs unavailable
Grow global net rooms and franchise agreementsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Manage CEO transition and maintain strategic momentumDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Choice Hotels outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a franchise-growth business with some durable operating drivers, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value case. The multi-year view is in a watch state: management priorities are showing progress, but earnings quality is fragile and recent results have lagged the industry cohort.

What's priced into Choice Hotels

Valuation is tagged as stretched, although the valuation measure has fallen and CHH is described as cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is moderate, and the evidence says weak execution is not joined by the full combination of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term execution has mixed signals: net room growth, franchise agreements, operating income, adjusted EBITDA, and capital returns have progressed in line with management priorities. However, guidance was lowered as of August, and recent earnings misses with a downward trend in surprises remain a risk; the near-term miss risk is described as low.

What Choice Hotels hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in the global franchise system and sustained operating improvement, especially as management transitions. A guidance reversal next quarter would strengthen the execution picture, while results and guidance from hotel peers could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.