Home Depot (The) (HD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-09-14
$310.87+0.69%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put HD beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisManagement screens strong on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 24% growth a year, above the roughly 2% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskHome Depot's growth relies on strong customer retention and ongoing sales momentum. Revenue grew 5.7% year over year, and the latest earnings beat expectations. It trades at 20.8× P/E versus a peer median of 14.5×, indicating the market prices in more growth than forecasted. The next-quarter miss probability is 17%. If guidance is cut, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis). Our read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. HD is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 36 analysts currently covering HD (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 13 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for HD in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare HD with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Consumer Discretionary (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put HD next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Achieve total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026
Broad strength supports sales growth objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $310.87
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $310.87.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Maintain operating margin at approximately 12.4% to 12.6% in fiscal 2026
Tariff and logistics pressures could impact operating margins.
Advances: Maintain capital expenditures at approximately 2.5% of total sales
Supply chain expansion aligns with capital expenditure objectives.
AI rollout supports capital efficiency and growth objectives.
Threatens: Achieve total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026
Housing market stagnation impacts sales growth objectives.
Competitor's store closures may increase Home Depot's market share.
Threatens: Achieve total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026
Weak DIY demand may hinder sales growth objectives.
Threatens: Achieve revenue growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026
Lack of housing turnaround impacts revenue growth expectations.
