Home Depot (The) (HD)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-10-15

$309.63+0.45%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Home Depot (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

15.97 → 15.93 EPS · FY ending Feb 1, 2028 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain market leadership amid competitor exits	Recent competitor exits and a new housing bill support growth.	Intact	Significant new competitor gains market share or Home Depot loses share	Qualitative: Competitor exit (43-yr chain) reinforces share; no new entrant threat Rival hardware chain closure reported; HD positioned to benefit from housing recovery; no new competitor threats identified. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating margin between 12.4% and 12.6%	A primary condition in Home Depot (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is 12.4% to 12.6%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 12.4% in FY26	Operating margin: 14.29% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 12.4% to 12.6%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 24, 202614.289296 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 2, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 10f0274b-46fa-483f-b41e-5cb2901e7323. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Home Depot (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is 2.5% to 4.5% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 2.5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 5.71% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 2.5% to 4.5% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 24, 20265.707092 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 2, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 10f0274b-46fa-483f-b41e-5cb2901e7323. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$15.93

$16.08 → $15.93 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$177.46B

$177.45B → $177.46B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$16.08	$177,451,174,389	21 / 26
2026-07-25	$16.08	$177,451,174,389	21 / 26
2026-07-26	$16.08	$177,451,174,389	21 / 26
2026-07-27	$16.08	$177,451,174,389	21 / 26
2026-07-28	$16.08	$177,451,174,389	21 / 26
2026-07-29	$16.08	$177,451,174,389	21 / 26
2026-07-30	$16.08	$177,451,174,389	21 / 26
2026-07-31	$16.08	$177,451,174,389	21 / 26
2026-08-01	$16.08	$177,451,174,389	21 / 26
2026-08-02	$16.08	$177,451,174,389	21 / 26
2026-08-03	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-04	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-05	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-06	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-07	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-08	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-09	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-10	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-12	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-13	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-14	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-15	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-16	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-17	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-18	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-19	$16.07	$177,303,493,553	21 / 26
2026-08-20	$16.02	$177,518,790,975	21 / 26
2026-08-21	$16.01	$177,548,532,262	21 / 26
2026-08-22	$16.01	$177,548,532,262	21 / 26
2026-08-23	$16.00	$177,548,532,262	21 / 26
2026-08-24	$16.00	$177,548,532,262	21 / 26
2026-08-25	$16.00	$177,548,532,262	21 / 26
2026-08-26	$16.00	$177,561,629,423	21 / 26
2026-08-27	$16.00	$177,561,629,423	21 / 26
2026-08-28	$16.00	$177,561,629,423	21 / 26
2026-08-29	$15.99	$177,544,791,537	21 / 26
2026-08-30	$15.97	$177,497,199,348	21 / 26
2026-08-31	$15.97	$177,497,199,348	21 / 26
2026-09-01	$15.97	$177,497,199,348	21 / 26
2026-09-02	$15.97	$177,497,199,348	21 / 26
2026-09-03	$15.97	$177,497,199,348	21 / 26
2026-09-04	$15.97	$177,497,199,348	21 / 26
2026-09-05	$15.98	$177,497,188,172	21 / 26
2026-09-06	$15.98	$177,497,188,172	21 / 26
2026-09-07	$15.98	$177,497,188,172	21 / 26
2026-09-08	$15.98	$177,497,188,172	21 / 26
2026-09-09	$15.98	$177,562,681,899	21 / 26
2026-09-10	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-11	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-12	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-13	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-14	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-15	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-16	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-17	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-18	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-19	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-20	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-21	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-22	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-23	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-24	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-25	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-26	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-27	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-28	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-29	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-09-30	$15.97	$177,503,615,233	21 / 26
2026-10-01	$15.97	$177,543,195,068	21 / 26
2026-10-02	$15.97	$177,463,186,566	21 / 26
2026-10-03	$15.97	$177,463,186,566	21 / 26
2026-10-04	$15.97	$177,463,186,566	21 / 26
2026-10-05	$15.97	$177,463,186,566	21 / 26
2026-10-06	$15.97	$177,463,186,566	21 / 26
2026-10-07	$15.95	$177,458,919,899	21 / 26
2026-10-08	$15.95	$177,458,919,899	21 / 26
2026-10-09	$15.95	$177,458,919,899	21 / 26
2026-10-10	$15.95	$177,458,919,899	21 / 26
2026-10-11	$15.95	$177,458,919,899	21 / 26
2026-10-12	$15.95	$177,458,919,899	21 / 26
2026-10-13	$15.95	$177,458,919,899	21 / 26
2026-10-14	$15.95	$177,458,936,439	21 / 26
2026-10-15	$15.93	$177,458,936,439	21 / 26

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	22	14
2026-06-01	22	15
2026-07-01	21	15
2026-08-01	21	15
2026-09-01	21	15
2026-10-01	22	15

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Melius ResearchOct 6

$397.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$218.35$436.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain operating margin between 12.4% and 12.6%Operating margin: 14.29%
Achieve revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026Revenue growth: 5.71%

Next proof point

Nov 17, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Home Depot (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is stable, supported by management's consistent reaffirmation of sales and margin targets.

What's priced into Home Depot (The)

The market appears to be pricing in a durable premium compared to peers, reflecting a 21% expectations gap. Valuation is considered stretched, indicating that investors may have high expectations for future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5% and maintain operating margins above guidance. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent industry misses, which could impact future performance.

What Home Depot (The) hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and the overall health of the Consumer Discretionary sector. Key factors include inflation trends and performance from sector peers like LOW and FND.