Reading TJX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TJX free→Reading TJX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TJX free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with TJX trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 108% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include the potential for guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like ROST and BURL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $166.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $166 the market pays 32× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 29× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $80 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $160–$197. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 108% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.31x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.18 (+1.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 11 maintained. 90% of analysts rate Buy.
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.9% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$163.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,118.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in consumer demand and hurt the growth outlook.
Confirms:Q2 sales growth was less than 2%.
Disproves:Q2 sales growth was more than 3%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase dividend by 13% and repurchase $2.50 to $2.75B of stock in FY27
Dividend increase aligns with capital allocation goals.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 20, 2026 , The TJX Companies, Inc. issued a press release that included financial results for the fiscal quarter ended May 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information contained in this report, and the exhibits attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of, or otherwise regarded as filed under, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amend…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$160.00 – $197.00 (median $185.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-05-21
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 16.6% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to increase its full year FY27 comparable sales growth to 3% to 4%.
The company plans to increase its pretax profit margin outlook to 11.9% to 12.0% for FY27.
The company plans to increase its share buyback range to $2.75 to $3.0 billion for FY27.
TJX plans to increase its dividend by 13% and repurchase $2.50 to $2.75 billion of stock during fiscal year 2027.
TJX aims for consolidated comparable sales growth of 2% to 3% in fiscal year 2027.
Why it matters: A confirmed dividend increase would show strong cash flow. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share.
Disproves:No announcement of the planned dividend increase in March 2026.
Why it matters: A lower margin means higher costs or less pricing power. This affects profits.
Confirms:Q2 pretax profit margin was less than 11.4%.
Disproves:Q2 pretax profit margin was more than 11.5%.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong cash flow and a promise to return value to shareholders.
Confirms:A dividend increase of more than 13% was announced.
Disproves:No dividend increase announced or a decrease in the dividend.
Why it matters: More buybacks may show strong cash flow and management's confidence in the company.
Confirms:Share buybacks announced over $3 billion.
Disproves:No increase in share buyback guidance beyond $2.75 billion.
Why it matters: Weak performance from peers like AMZN or HD could indicate broader sector challenges.
Confirms one read:Peer retail sales growth reported below 1% year over year.
Confirms the other:Peer retail sales growth reported above 3% year over year.
Advances: Increase full year FY27 comp sales growth to 3% to 4%
Strength in stores and online supports growth objectives.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 25, 2026 , The TJX Companies, Inc. issued a press release that included financial results for the fiscal quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information contained in this report, and the exhibits attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of, or otherwise regarded as filed under, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 19, 2025 , The TJX Companies, Inc. issued a press release that included financial results for the fiscal quarter ended November 1, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information contained in this report, and the exhibits attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of, or otherwise regarded as filed under, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 20, 2025 , The TJX Companies, Inc. issued a press release that included financial results for the fiscal quarter ended August 2, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The information contained in this report, and the exhibits attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of, or otherwise regarded as filed under, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…