Reading URBN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track URBN free→Reading URBN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track URBN free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting URBN and other Consumer Discretionary names. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $77 URBN trades at 14× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $86 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.18x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.64 → $1.69 (+2.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.0% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$174.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$373.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,632.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings reports show how Urban Outfitters is doing. They also show market conditions. Changes in these results can change how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows sales and profit margins are better than expected.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows sales and profit margins are lower than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for URBN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 19, 2026, Urban Outfitters, Inc. (the “Company”) and certain of its domestic subsidiaries entered into the fifth amendment (the “Fifth Amendment”) to the Company’s amended and restated credit agreement (the “Amended Credit Agreement”), amending the Company’s asset-based revolving credit facility with certain lenders, including JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and Wells Fargo Bank, National Ass…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing net sales in the Retail segment through digital and store sales.
Drive growth in the Subscription segment through increased active subscribers.
Focus on increasing sales in the Wholesale segment through specialty customer sales.
Continue the share repurchase program to return value to shareholders.
Why it matters: Lower growth would signal potential weakness in consumer demand and sales trends.
Confirms:Q2 Retail segment net sales growth below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Retail segment net sales growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Fewer buybacks might show less confidence in cash flow or how money is spent.
Confirms:Share repurchases fall below $100 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Share repurchases exceed $100 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A big drop could mean higher costs or discounts. This can hurt profits.
Confirms:Gross profit rate declines more than 50 basis points compared to the prior year.
Disproves:Gross profit rate improves or declines less than 50 basis points.
Why it matters: Changes to the credit agreement can impact how the company manages its money. This can also affect its operations.
Confirms one read:A press release shows better terms or lower interest rates in the credit agreement.
Confirms the other:A press release shows stricter terms or higher fees in the credit agreement.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will show how much consumers are spending. This affects Urban Outfitters.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 4% year over year.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows decline or growth below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may change the consumer discretionary sector. It might show weaker demand for Urban Outfitters' products.
Confirms:Revenue growth is below the median for the sector. This shows weakening demand.
Disproves:Revenue growth is above the median. This suggests strong demand continues.
Why it matters: If this segment slows down, it may show less interest in the Nuuly service.
Confirms:Subscription segment net sales growth below 30% year over year.
Disproves:Subscription segment net sales growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Inflation trends can change how much people spend and affect Urban Outfitters' sales.
Confirms one read:CPI data shows inflation below 3%, which means prices are stable.
Confirms the other:CPI data shows inflation above 5%, which means prices are rising.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information described above under “