Reading BOOT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOOT free→Reading BOOT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOOT free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future results. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while management's recent track record has been steady. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and trends among sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $162.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $166 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $114 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $225–$272. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 46% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.93 → $1.70 (-11.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 93% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$194.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$418.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,501.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Sales in this range show Boot Barn's ability to grow. It reflects overall business health.
Confirms:Total sales reported at $584 million or higher.
Disproves:Total sales are below $574 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BOOT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
by reference. The information provided in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is intended to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by sp…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$225.00 – $272.00 (median $248.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Target revenue growth of 14% to 16% for the first fiscal quarter of 2026.
Target revenue growth of 14% to 16% for the fiscal year ending March 27, 2027.
Maintain the operating income guidance range for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: This growth range is key for Boot Barn's performance. It shows if the company can keep its momentum.
Confirms:Q1 2026 revenue growth reported at 14% or higher.
Disproves:Q1 2026 revenue growth reported below 14%.
Why it matters: This margin shows how well Boot Barn is managing costs. Higher margins mean better profitability.
Confirms:Merchandise margin is 51.7% or higher.
Disproves:Merchandise margin is below 51.5%.
Why it matters: This growth shows how well existing stores are performing. It indicates customer demand.
Confirms:Same store sales growth reported at 4% or higher.
Disproves:Same store sales growth reported below 2%.
by reference. The information provided in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is intended to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by sp…