Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$115.18-3.82%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.09 → 10.01 EPS · FY ending Mar 28, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	817.91M
EPS	—	3.43
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$2.58B–$2.63B	2.61B
EPS	—	9.13
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.94B
EPS	—	10.012

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS of $8.43 in fiscal year 2027	The company targets $2.6 billion revenue and $8.43 EPS in fiscal 2027.	Intact	EPS falls below $8.21 in fiscal year 2027	Diluted EPS: $2.29 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $8.21. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20262.29 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 75312bb2-d8c8-4324-bc97-bb28f62f87ae. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.254 billion in fiscal 2026 to guidance of $2.580 billion to $2.625 billion for fiscal 2027, representing 14% to 16% growth. Management has consistently emphasized this growth target and the trajectory is delivering with strong revenue increases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Consumer spending remains stable despite geopolitical tensions	A supporting condition in Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No significant decline in consumer discretionary spending.	Improving	Material decline in consumer spending due to geopolitical tensions	Same-store sales +2.0% vs no significant decline Boot Barn reported 2% same-store sales growth in August and strong Q4 results, offsetting earlier geopolitical concerns. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating income near $297 million in fiscal year 2026	Free cash flow and operating income remain solid despite some challenges.	Intact	Operating income falls below $297 million in fiscal year 2026	Operating income: $90.526M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $297 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202690,526,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 75312bb2-d8c8-4324-bc97-bb28f62f87ae. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 14% to 16% revenue growth in fiscal year 2027	A primary condition in Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=14% to 16% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 14% in fiscal year 2027	Revenue growth: 17.75% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=14% to 16% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202617.74526 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 75312bb2-d8c8-4324-bc97-bb28f62f87ae. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.254 billion in fiscal 2026 to guidance of $2.580 billion to $2.625 billion for fiscal 2027, representing 14% to 16% growth. Management has consistently emphasized this growth target and the trajectory is delivering with strong revenue increases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-28 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$10.01

$9.93 → $10.01 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.94B

$2.94B → $2.94B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.93	$2,943,828,438	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$9.93	$2,943,828,438	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$9.93	$2,943,828,438	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$9.93	$2,943,828,438	10 / 11
2026-07-28	$9.93	$2,943,828,438	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$9.92	$2,944,324,905	9 / 11
2026-07-30	$9.92	$2,944,324,905	9 / 11
2026-07-31	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	9 / 11
2026-08-01	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-03	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-04	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-05	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-06	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-07	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-08	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-09	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-10	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-11	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-12	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-13	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-14	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-15	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-16	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-17	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-18	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-19	$10.03	$2,944,732,610	10 / 12
2026-08-20	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-21	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-05	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-06	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-07	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-08	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-09	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-10	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-11	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-12	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-13	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-14	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-15	$10.08	$2,947,054,898	10 / 12
2026-09-16	$10.09	$2,947,309,423	10 / 12
2026-09-17	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-18	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-19	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-20	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-21	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-22	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-23	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-24	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-25	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-26	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-27	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-28	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-29	$10.09	$2,947,134,423	9 / 12
2026-09-30	$10.06	$2,943,138,235	9 / 12
2026-10-01	$10.06	$2,943,138,235	9 / 12
2026-10-02	$10.06	$2,943,138,235	9 / 12
2026-10-03	$10.06	$2,943,136,267	9 / 12
2026-10-04	$10.06	$2,943,136,267	9 / 12
2026-10-05	$10.06	$2,943,136,267	9 / 12
2026-10-06	$10.06	$2,943,136,267	9 / 12
2026-10-07	$10.06	$2,943,108,605	9 / 12
2026-10-08	$10.06	$2,943,108,605	9 / 12
2026-10-09	$10.06	$2,943,108,605	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$10.06	$2,943,108,605	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$10.06	$2,943,108,605	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$10.06	$2,943,108,605	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$10.06	$2,943,108,605	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$10.06	$2,943,108,605	9 / 12
2026-10-15	$10.05	$2,942,225,741	9 / 12
2026-10-16	$10.05	$2,942,225,741	9 / 12
2026-10-17	$10.05	$2,942,225,741	9 / 12
2026-10-18	$10.06	$2,944,047,756	10 / 13
2026-10-19	$10.06	$2,944,047,756	10 / 13
2026-10-20	$10.06	$2,944,047,756	10 / 13
2026-10-21	$10.06	$2,943,857,756	10 / 13
2026-10-22	$10.06	$2,943,857,756	10 / 13
2026-10-23	$10.04	$2,941,439,253	10 / 13
2026-10-24	$10.01	$2,939,209,841	10 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	1
2026-06-01	15	1
2026-07-01	15	1
2026-08-01	15	1
2026-09-01	15	1
2026-10-01	16	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 22 · prior Jun 17

$225.00 → $232.00+3.1%

NeedhamOct 16

$150.00New observation · no comparable prior

Robert W. BairdSep 29 · prior Jul 30

$212.00 → $160.00-24.5%

Craig-HallumSep 29

$224.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$127.60$255.20

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS of $8.43 in fiscal year 2027Diluted EPS: $2.29 per share
Maintain operating income near $297 million in fiscal year 2026Operating income: $90.526M
Achieve 14% to 16% revenue growth in fiscal year 2027Revenue growth: 17.75%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-and-store-expansion story, with recent financial performance rated strong and management execution stable. The long-term thesis is intact, but risk has risen from moderate to elevated, and earnings quality is neutral.

What's priced into Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.

BOOT trades at a modest premium to peers, and the valuation evidence describes expectations as aligned with the business outlook. The priced-in assessment finds low fragility, though execution quality is a weakness; the evidence does not support calling the shares clearly cheap or expensive overall.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s fiscal 2027 revenue growth goal is on track, as are double-digit e-commerce sales growth and ongoing store expansion, though the store-opening status is mixed. A recent earnings beat supports the setup, but earnings surprises have been trending down and a guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative.

What Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining revenue growth and delivering its store and e-commerce priorities without cutting guidance. Consumer Discretionary sector momentum is another swing factor: continued strength at TJX, ROST, and BURL would support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance could remove that tailwind.