Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
$143.02-6.28%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Boot Barn grows sales about 15% a year with strong demand. Profit margins stay stable near guidance. The company targets $2.6 billion revenue and $8.43 EPS in fiscal 2027. Free cash flow and operating income remain solid despite some challenges.
Geopolitical tensions and consumer spending risks could hurt sales growth. The recent guidance cut signals margin pressure. Valuation is high with a PE of 22 versus peers at 13.6, risking multiple contraction if growth slows.
The price is about 3% above our fair value near $152, reflecting roughly 17% revenue growth. Our fair value is well below the Street median, indicating some caution versus optimistic analyst targets.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $8.21 in fiscal year 2027
Breaks if: Material decline in consumer spending due to geopolitical tensions
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity. The company is focused on achieving revenue growth and expanding its retail presence, while facing some challenges in the broader consumer discretionary sector.
The current valuation reflects a neutral expectation, with the market pricing in a slight gap in expectations. The company is seen as aligned with its peers, but it carries a premium compared to them.
Management is on track to meet its revenue growth targets for fiscal year 2027, although the store opening plans are mixed. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk of missing future earnings expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain guidance and manage inflation impacts. Additionally, performance trends from key sector peers could influence BOOT's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the positive outlook. Strong store expansion and e-commerce initiatives aim for 14% to 16% revenue growth in fiscal year 2027. There are no current threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $297 million in fiscal year 2026
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 14% in fiscal year 2027
Overall, BOOT appears to be in a stable position for the next few years, but it faces risks that could affect its performance. Not investment advice.