Reading SFIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SFIX free→Reading SFIX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SFIX free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If SFIX cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.23 SFIX trades at 0× p/s, in line with its 0× p/s peer median. Our $3.40 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $4.00–$5.00. Not investment advice.
(median $4.50) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 24% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.94x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.06 → $-0.05 (+5.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 31.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$248.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$648.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,751.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Achieving positive adjusted EBITDA is a key goal for Stitch Fix. This would show progress in improving financial health.
Confirms:In Q4 2026, adjusted EBITDA was between $7 million and $10 million.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA is less than $7 million. It may also be negative.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SFIX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 10, 2026, Stitch Fix, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, ended May 2, 2026. In the press release, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on June 10, 2026, at 2:00 p.m Pacific Time to discuss its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this “Curre…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SFIX Stitch Fix, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | full | high |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving positive adjusted EBITDA through operational improvements.
Aim to maintain gross margin within the 43% to 44% range for fiscal year 2026.
Provide revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 to ensure transparency and set expectations.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance is a key focus for Stitch Fix. Meeting this target shows growth potential.
Confirms:Q4 2026 revenue reported within the range of $1.346 billion to $1.351 billion.
Disproves:Revenue falls below $1.346 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping a good gross margin is important for Stitch Fix's profits. It shows how well they manage costs.
Confirms:Gross margin reported between 43% and 44% for Q4 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin falls below 43%.
Other Events. On April 1, 2026, Stitch Fix, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that it has resumed repurchases under its existing share repurchase program. The share repurchase program was previously authorized by the Company’s Board of Directors in January 2022, and enables the Company to repurchase up to $150 million of its Class A common stock from time to time through open market repurchases, privately negotiated transactions, or other means, including pursuant to Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. T…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 11, 2026, Stitch Fix, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 ended January 31, 2026. In the press release, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on March 11, 2026, at 2:00 p.m Pacific Time to discuss its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (thi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 12, 2026, Anthony Bacos, Chief Product and Technology Officer of Stitch Fix, Inc. (the "Company"), notified the Company of his intention to retire from the Company, effective August 1, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, the Company has duly caused this report to be signed on it…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On December 11, 2025, Stitch Fix, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into the First Amendment (the “Amendment”) to the first lien credit agreement, dated as of December 4, 2023, by and between the Company, as borrower, and Citibank, N.A., as agent and lender (the “Credit Agreement”). The Amendment extends the maturity date of the Credit Agreement from December 4, 2026 to December 11, 2028. Except to the extent described herein and in the exhibits hereto, t…