Reading CAL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CAL free→Reading CAL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CAL free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CAL is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 CAL trades at 13× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $20 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 31% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.15x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.38 → $0.38 (-1.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -200.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$249.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$573.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,318.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows the company is managing costs well. This can improve overall performance.
Confirms:Operating income grew more than 5% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth is flat or negative year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CAL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 4, 2026, Caleres, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") announcing, among other things, its results of operations for the quarter ended May 2, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, and the statements contained therein are incorporated by reference herein. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information contained in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CAL Caleres, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to improve EPS guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
Management is focusing on growing operating income as a key financial metric.
Management is working to enhance cash flow from operations.
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance shows stronger profit expectations. This may help investor confidence.
Confirms:Management raises EPS guidance for the next quarter.
Disproves:EPS guidance remains unchanged or is lowered.
Why it matters: Better cash from operations shows improved cash management. This can help with future investments.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows what consumers do. This affects Caleres' sales directly.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows an increase of more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decrease of more than 1% month over month.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 20, 2026, the Company announced that Daniel L. Karpel, Senior Vice President and current interim Chief Financial Officer, has been appointed Chief Financial Officer, effective immediately. Mr. Karpel will serve as the Company’s principal financial officer and principal accounting officer. Mr. Karpel, age 55, has served as interim Chief F…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 19, 2026, Caleres, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") announcing, among other things, its results of operations for the quarter ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto, and the statements contained therein are incorporated by reference herein. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information contained in
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Principal Officer Jack P. Calandra, the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer will be stepping down from his position effective as of January 15, 2026, and he will no longer be an officer of the Company as of that date. Mr. Calandra will terminate his employment with the Company as of January 30, 2026. Mr. Calan…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On January 21, 2026, the Company issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing that it was updating its fourth quarter and fiscal 2025 outlook to note the potential impact of the Saks Global bankruptcy and potential for restructuring charges not previously anticipated in the Company’s prior guidance.