Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-14
$60.20-0.69%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put CTRN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Apparel Retail is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on earnings delivery, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 269% growth a year, above the roughly 11% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 30% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskCTRN's growth trajectory relies on achieving 9%-11% total sales growth in 2026. Revenue grew 10.9% year over year, and the latest earnings beat expectations. It trades at 55.1× P/E versus a peer median of 14.2×, indicating the market prices in more growth than forecast. The premium suggests the valuation is unjustified given the current performance. A specific risk is the 18% probability of missing outlooks, which could pressure the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 266% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. CTRN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 2 analysts currently covering CTRN (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare CTRN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Apparel Retail — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put CTRN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase adjusted EBITDA to $35M-$40M in 2026
Profit growth supports adjusted EBITDA target.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Achieve 9%-11% total sales growth in 2026
Raised outlook not translating to share price reflects market skepticism.
Threatens: Open approximately 25 new stores and remodel 50 stores in 2026
Targeting fewer new stores than previously planned.
Threatens: Achieve 9%-11% total sales growth in 2026
Guidance concerns may hinder sales growth objectives.
Advances: Increase adjusted EBITDA to $35M-$40M in 2026
Earnings beat supports adjusted EBITDA growth target.
Advances: Achieve 9%-11% total sales growth
Indicates potential for significant sales growth in footwear.
Advances: Achieve 9%-11% total sales growth
Strong sales growth supports sales growth objective.
Advances: Increase adjusted EBITDA to $35M-$40M
Adjusted EBITDA target aligns with management's goals.