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Track VSXY free→Victoria's Secret (VSXY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-07-01
$77.71-6.91%
Close 2026-07-01 · 1-day change
The bottom line
The thesis is that Victoria's Secret can grow due to its recent plans for outlets. The company has seen strong stock momentum, with a recent 40% rise. It trades at a premium compared to its peers, which suggests high expectations. If the Consumer Discretionary sector weakens, it could hurt Victoria's Secret. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-01
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Apparel Retail
- Market cap
- $6.65B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2021-09-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-26
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.71. As of 2026-07-02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$78.08
Range $37.92 – $86.17
vs price: -0% below
Method agreement : high · 10 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$81.03consensus
Range $59.12 – $86.52
vs price: -4% below
Method agreement : medium · 3 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$107.16consensus
Range $72.96 – $114.42
vs price: -27% below
Method agreement : medium · 3 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for VSXY right now, so treat our $90 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $73–$90. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-14%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$90.00
range $90.00 – $90.00
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
(median $90.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Compared to its own history
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-01.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +83.2% / 30d, n=10for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.76 (+83.2% / 30d). 8 raised, 0 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 2 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · Weeklyheadwind-5.0%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLY
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-01
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,219.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-07-01
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-07-01
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-07-011d agoRTE.ie
Advancing outlet plans supports growth strategy.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting VSXY and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would be a tailwind for VSXY and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping VSXY and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits VSXY and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would delay Fed rate cuts, which is a drag on VSXY and other Consumer Discretionary names.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-02
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.