Reading SCVL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SCVL free→Reading SCVL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SCVL free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and the company is capital-friendly in its approach. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers that are above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 SCVL trades at 10× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $28 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.79x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.34 (+2.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$154.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$486.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,970.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can impact interest rates and consumer spending. This affects retail sales.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SCVL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On Ma…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SCVL Shoe Carnival, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has reaffirmed the Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range of $1.40 to $1.60.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reaffirmed the Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range of $1.40 to $1.60. However, the company reported a diluted EPS of -0.21 in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the guidance target.
“We are reaffirming our previously communicated Fiscal 2026 guidance: Adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.60.”
“Adjusted EPS: expected in a range of $1.40 to $1.60.”
Management has reaffirmed the Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance range of $1.125 billion to $1.147 billion.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management reaffirmed the Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance range of $1.125 billion to $1.147 billion. Revenue for 2026-Q1 was $270.73 million, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the annual target.
“We are reaffirming our previously communicated Fiscal 2026 guidance: Net sales of $1.125 billion to $1.147 billion.”
The company continues to maintain its quarterly cash dividend payment of $0.17 per share.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company maintains its quarterly cash dividend payment of $0.17 per share. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy despite a net income loss of $5.63 million in 2026-Q1.
“The Company’s Board of Directors approved the payment of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share.”
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer confidence and spending. Strong growth can boost retail sales.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Why it matters: This report shows overall retail sales trends. It can affect consumer spending outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase month over month by more than 0.5%.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease month over month by more than -0.5%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On Ma…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Compensation for Interim President and Chief Executive Officer On March 3, 2026, the Compensation Committee (the “Compensation Committee”) of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Shoe Carnival, Inc. (the “Company”) approved certain compensation arrangements for Clifton E. Sifford in connection with his appointment as the Interim President and Ch…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Appointment of Interim President and Chief Executive Officer On February 24, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company appointed Clifton E. Sifford to serve as the Company’s Interim President and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Sifford currently serves as the Vice Chairman of the Board and will continue in that role as well. Mr. Sifford…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such fil…