Reading JILL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JILL free→Reading JILL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JILL free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and risk is elevated. Peer multiples imply a price about 52% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If JILL cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 JILL trades at 7× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 52% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -5.51x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
13 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.62 → $0.57 (-7.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$173.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$402.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,098.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:The company pays the declared dividend of $0.09 per share on July 8, 2026.
Disproves:The company suspends or reduces the dividend payout.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M
Inventory concerns could impact EBITDA target.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 10, 2026, J.Jill, Inc. issued a press release to announce its financial results for the first quarter ended May 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18, of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”),…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JILL J Jill, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share.
Target adjusted EBITDA between $70 million and $75 million for fiscal 2026.
Plan for total capital expenditures of approximately $25 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting the $70M to $75M target shows the company is on track for growth.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA reported between $70M and $75M for Q1.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA falls below $70M for Q1.
Advances: Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M
Reaffirming EBITDA target supports growth objective.
Threatens: Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M
Sales declines may hinder EBITDA growth.
Advances: Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M
Surpassing estimates positively impacts EBITDA outlook.
Other Events. On June 3, 2026, the Board of Directors of J.Jill, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share on the Company’s common stock (the “Dividend”). The Dividend is payable on July 8, 2026 to stockholders of record of issued and outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock as of June 24, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the Dividend has been furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 14, 2026, James Guido notified J.Jill, Inc. (the “Company”) of his intent to retire as Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, effective May 1, 2026. Mr. Guido’s retirement from the Company is not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to its operations, policies or practices. The Company has designated Ma…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 31, 2026, J.Jill, Inc. issued a press release to announce its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this report (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18, of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Other Events. On March 31, 2026, the Board of Directors of J.Jill, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.09 per share on the Company’s common stock (the “Dividend”). The Dividend is payable on April 28, 2026 to stockholders of record of issued and outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock as of April 14, 2026.