J Jill, Inc. (JILL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
$21.74+9.58%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Stabilize or improve revenue growth from recent declines: rev -6.0% vs 0% target.
J.Jill keeps paying and slightly raising its dividend to $0.09 per share. The company aims for adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M in fiscal 2026. Capital spending is steady at about $25 million. Recent earnings beat estimates despite a 6% sales decline.
Sales are falling with a 6% revenue drop last quarter. Inventory concerns could hurt EBITDA targets. The company is loss-making and management is volatile.
The price is about 11% below our fair value near $17. Analysts expect about 2% revenue growth, which is slightly optimistic given recent declines.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below 70 million USD in FY26
Breaks if: capex falls below 20 million USD or exceeds 25 million USD in FY26
dividend per share falls below $0.09 per quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the consumer discretionary sector. The current thesis state is cautious, reflecting mixed recent performance and volatility in management's execution.
The market appears to price JILL as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. However, the valuation is justified given the current economic headwinds and the company's recent performance.
Management has reaffirmed its adjusted EBITDA guidance, but recent financial performance has been below industry averages. The near-term risk is elevated, with a notable probability of missing earnings expectations.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and the broader consumer discretionary sector's performance. Key triggers include potential cuts in guidance and inflation trends that could impact consumer spending.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 25.4 points (from 13.7 to 39.1).
Valuation rose by 10.8 points (from 42.4 to 53.2).
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Tariff refunds are boosting margins and helping achieve adjusted EBITDA goals for fiscal 2026. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth remains below 0% in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, JILL's performance will depend on both internal management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.