J Jill, Inc. (JILL)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.60-1.09%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge J Jill, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	—	156.83M
EPS	—	0.679
EBITDA	$20M–$22Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	147.27M
EPS	—	-0.008
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	603.43M
EPS	—	2.4
Capital expenditure	$20M–$25M	—
EBITDA	$75M–$80Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	About $40M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	622.54M
EPS	—	2.482

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M in fiscal 2026	The company aims for adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M in fiscal 2026.	Intact	adjusted EBITDA falls below 70 million USD in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Capex of approximately $25 million in fiscal 2026	Capital spending is steady at about $25 million.	Intact	capex falls below 20 million USD or exceeds 25 million USD in FY26	Capital expenditures: $2.233M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 20 to 25 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 20262,233,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share	J.Jill keeps paying and slightly raising its dividend to $0.09 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.09 per quarter	Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.09 USD per share per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 9, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d57ac43a-52a0-48f8-88bd-ea2f0458e243. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize or improve revenue growth from recent declines	A primary condition in J Jill, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	YoY revenue growth remains below 0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	2
2026-06-01	3	3
2026-07-01	3	3
2026-08-01	2	3
2026-09-01	2	3
2026-10-01	2	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $70M to $75M in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Capex of approximately $25 million in fiscal 2026Capital expenditures: $2.233M
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.09 per shareDividend per share: $0.09 per share
Stabilize or improve revenue growth from recent declinesDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Dec 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

J Jill, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a small-cap retail business with a value-oriented thesis, not a low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent signals have improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but the evidence for newer strategic priorities is still limited.

What's priced into J Jill, Inc.

JILL is cheap versus peers, and the current pricing is tagged as justified, with no fragility warnings. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, though confidence in that estimate is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent performance is strong: Q2 net sales rose 0.5% year over year, gross margin reached 76.8% including tariff refunds, and adjusted EBITDA increased from the prior-year quarter. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA is slightly below last year, while management reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 goal of $75 million to $80 million; erratic earnings results keep risk elevated.

What J Jill, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether management can turn its newer assortment and customer-journey priorities into sustained results and deliver its full-year EBITDA goal. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued strong results from retail bellwethers TJX, ROST, and BURL would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.