NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-08-31
Reading TJX? Create a free portfolio, then add this holding for ongoing Reports and tracking. Track it in a free portfolio. No credit card.
Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
TJX grows sales about 6% yearly, beating its 3-4% target. Profit margins are strong near 12%. The company buys back billions in stock, returning cash to shareholders. It has a solid track record of earnings beats.
TJX trades at a high price with a PE near 30, well above peers at 13.6. Revenue growth could slow below 6%. Rising costs or weaker sales could pressure profit margins and cash returns.
The market prices in about 6.4% revenue growth and a stretched valuation 29% above our fair value near $119. Our fair value is 36% below the Street median, reflecting caution on growth sustainability.
Breaks if: pretax profit margin falls below 11.9% in FY27
Breaks if: comparable sales growth falls below 3% in FY27
Breaks if: annual share buybacks fall below $2.75 billion in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth and profitability. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.
The valuation appears expensive compared to peers, reflecting a durable premium. The market seems to expect continued growth, but there is a gap in expectations that could lead to volatility if performance falters.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong as management is on track to meet its growth and margin targets. However, there is a moderate risk due to the company's fragile earnings quality and recent history of misses.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and avoid negative surprises. Additionally, broader sector performance, particularly from competitors, will be crucial in shaping TJX's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports an increase in full-year comp sales growth to 3% to 4%. Additionally, the pretax profit margin outlook has been raised to 11.9% to 12.0% for FY27. These factors indicate improved expectations for the company's performance.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The company plans to increase its share buyback range to $2.75 to $3.0 billion for FY27.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TJX's performance will depend on execution and market conditions. Not investment advice.
