TJX Companies (TJX)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$147.33+1.90%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge TJX Companies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.78 → 5.77 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Pretax profit margin near 12%	Profit margins are strong near 12%.	Intact	pretax profit margin falls below 11.9% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted pretax profit margin guidance increased from 11.7%-11.8% in 2026-Q1 to 12.0%-12.1% in 2026-Q3. Actual pretax profit margin was 13.3% in 2026-Q3, above plan. Management is delivering on margin expansion targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Comparable sales growth at or above 3% to 4% annually	A primary condition in TJX Companies's published investment case. The stated target is >=3% to 4% comp sales growth.	Intact	comparable sales growth falls below 3% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Consolidated comparable sales grew from 3% to 4% guidance in 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3, with actual reported comp sales of 6% in 2026-Q1 and 4% in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently raised and maintained this growth target, and the trajectory is delivering with above-plan comp sales. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Share buybacks of $2.75 to $3.0 billion annually	A supporting condition in TJX Companies's published investment case. The stated target is $2.75 to $3.0 billion total buybacks.	Intact	annual share buybacks fall below $2.75 billion in FY27	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.77

$5.76 → $5.77 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$68.03B

$67.89B → $68.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.76	$67,890,730,225	10 / 15
2026-07-25	$5.76	$67,890,730,225	10 / 15
2026-07-26	$5.76	$67,890,730,225	10 / 15
2026-07-27	$5.76	$67,890,730,225	10 / 15
2026-07-28	$5.76	$67,890,730,225	10 / 15
2026-07-29	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-07-30	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-07-31	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-01	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-02	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-03	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-04	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-05	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-06	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-08	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-09	$5.72	$67,875,209,359	13 / 21
2026-08-10	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-12	$5.72	$67,853,533,970	14 / 21
2026-08-13	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-14	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-15	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	10 / 15
2026-08-16	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	11 / 15
2026-08-17	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	11 / 15
2026-08-18	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	11 / 15
2026-08-19	$5.76	$67,891,434,679	11 / 15
2026-08-20	$5.77	$67,978,176,741	12 / 16
2026-08-21	$5.79	$68,055,325,362	12 / 16
2026-08-22	$5.79	$68,055,318,557	12 / 16
2026-08-23	$5.79	$68,055,318,557	12 / 16
2026-08-24	$5.79	$68,055,318,557	12 / 16
2026-08-25	$5.79	$68,055,318,557	12 / 16
2026-08-26	$5.79	$68,055,318,557	12 / 16
2026-08-27	$5.79	$68,055,318,557	12 / 16
2026-08-28	$5.78	$68,046,892,240	12 / 16
2026-08-29	$5.78	$68,046,892,240	12 / 16
2026-08-30	$5.78	$68,046,892,240	12 / 16
2026-08-31	$5.78	$68,046,892,240	12 / 16
2026-09-01	$5.78	$68,048,052,922	12 / 16
2026-09-02	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-03	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-04	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-05	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-06	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-07	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-08	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-09	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-10	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-11	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-12	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-13	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-14	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-15	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-16	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-17	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-18	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-19	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-20	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-21	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-22	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-23	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-24	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-25	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-26	$5.78	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-27	$5.77	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-28	$5.77	$68,030,676,452	12 / 16
2026-09-29	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	12 / 16
2026-09-30	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	12 / 16
2026-10-01	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-02	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-03	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-04	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-05	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-06	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-07	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-08	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-09	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-10	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-11	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-12	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-13	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-14	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16
2026-10-15	$5.77	$68,030,681,715	13 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	1	2
2026-06-01	19	1	1
2026-07-01	19	1	1
2026-08-01	21	3	1
2026-09-01	18	4	1
2026-10-01	19	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Pretax profit margin near 12%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Comparable sales growth at or above 3% to 4% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Share buybacks of $2.75 to $3.0 billion annuallyRequired source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

TJX Companies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but it faces challenges from sector headwinds and valuation concerns.

What's priced into TJX Companies

The market currently assumes an expensive valuation for TJX, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully justify the current price based on the company's execution quality and recent performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, as management is on track to achieve its sales growth and profit margin targets. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially given the company's recent history of performance misses.

What TJX Companies hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate potential inflationary pressures. Additionally, the performance of sector peers like ROST, BURL, and LULU will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and momentum.