NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth: YoY revenue growth +26.0% vs 14%.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 12% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 45%, softest on free-cash-flow yield.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 142% growth a year, above the roughly 15% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 39% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskTesla's growth relies on the volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi. Recent financial performance has weakened, dropping from the top half to the bottom half of its sector. Tesla trades at 11× price-to-sales, above its peer median of 0.8×. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast. The primary risk is that volume production metrics are not reported. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. TSLA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 49 analysts currently covering TSLA (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for TSLA in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across our valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No fair value published
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
This applies to all three horizons. The trailing multiples, peer comparison, and quality and trajectory reads on this page are unaffected. Names move in and out of this state day to day as the methods converge or diverge. Method agreement on this name is low.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automobile Manufacturers — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Rough quarter indicates potential issues with growth and balance sheet.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $311.20
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $311.20.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Expand Robotaxi service and FSD (Supervised) adoption
FSD plan could significantly boost revenue and adoption.
Threatens: Expand Robotaxi service and FSD (Supervised) adoption
Missed timelines raise doubts about Robotaxi service progress.
Threatens: Ramp volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi in 2026
Production issues threaten Cybercab and Semi ramp objectives.
Advances: Expand Robotaxi service and FSD (Supervised) adoption
Musk's comments may support FSD adoption in China.
Selling China business undermines growth objectives.
Loss of China market could hinder overall growth.
Negative perception of Cybertruck could impact sales and brand.
