Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$354.72-2.13%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Tesla, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.27 → 2.31 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 23 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 25 to 23; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Ramp AI compute and battery production	A supporting condition in Tesla, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is sustain ramp in AI compute and battery production in 2026.	Improving	fails to sustain ramp in AI compute and battery production in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Invest in clean energy and transport infrastructure	Tesla leads in electric vehicles and clean energy.	Intact	significant reduction in investment in clean energy and transport infrastructure in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth	A primary condition in Tesla, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=14% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 14% in FY26	Revenue growth: 25.52% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202625.515647 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c48b2999-cb9f-4a49-9c6f-e812fdc56569. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi	It aims for volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi in 2026.	Improving	fails to achieve volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas in 2026-Q2, and Tesla Semi factory construction is progressing with production planned for 2026. Management consistently emphasized ramping these products, and the trajectory shows delivering on volume production starts as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.31

$2.35 → $2.31 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$121.18B

$120.23B → $121.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.35	$120,230,327,005	24 / 33
2026-07-25	$2.35	$120,230,327,005	24 / 33
2026-07-26	$2.23	$119,840,470,660	32 / 46
2026-07-27	$2.33	$119,495,705,937	25 / 35
2026-07-28	$2.22	$120,456,741,310	32 / 46
2026-07-29	$2.33	$119,495,705,937	25 / 35
2026-07-30	$2.22	$120,523,395,250	32 / 46
2026-07-31	$2.29	$120,637,728,472	25 / 35
2026-08-01	$2.29	$120,637,728,472	25 / 35
2026-08-02	$2.22	$120,372,616,630	33 / 47
2026-08-03	$2.28	$120,509,525,552	25 / 35
2026-08-04	$2.28	$120,509,525,552	25 / 35
2026-08-05	$2.28	$120,509,525,552	25 / 35
2026-08-06	$2.22	$120,628,616,630	33 / 47
2026-08-08	$2.24	$120,089,515,227	26 / 36
2026-08-09	$2.22	$120,628,616,630	33 / 47
2026-08-10	$2.24	$120,089,515,227	26 / 36
2026-08-12	$2.24	$120,089,515,227	26 / 36
2026-08-13	$2.24	$120,089,515,227	26 / 36
2026-08-14	$2.24	$120,089,515,227	26 / 36
2026-08-15	$2.24	$120,089,515,227	26 / 36
2026-08-16	$2.24	$120,089,515,227	26 / 36
2026-08-17	$2.24	$120,089,515,227	26 / 36
2026-08-18	$2.24	$120,089,515,227	26 / 36
2026-08-19	$2.24	$120,089,515,227	26 / 36
2026-08-20	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	26 / 36
2026-08-21	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	26 / 36
2026-08-22	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	26 / 36
2026-08-23	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-08-24	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-08-25	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-08-26	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-08-27	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-08-28	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-08-29	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-08-30	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-08-31	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-09-01	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-09-02	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-09-03	$2.24	$120,164,618,648	25 / 35
2026-09-04	$2.26	$120,291,461,061	25 / 35
2026-09-05	$2.26	$120,291,461,061	25 / 35
2026-09-06	$2.26	$120,291,460,941	25 / 35
2026-09-07	$2.26	$120,291,460,941	25 / 35
2026-09-08	$2.26	$120,291,460,941	25 / 35
2026-09-09	$2.27	$120,434,151,208	25 / 35
2026-09-10	$2.27	$120,434,151,208	25 / 35
2026-09-11	$2.27	$120,434,151,208	25 / 35
2026-09-12	$2.27	$120,434,151,208	25 / 34
2026-09-13	$2.27	$120,434,151,208	25 / 34
2026-09-14	$2.27	$120,434,151,208	25 / 34
2026-09-15	$2.27	$120,434,151,208	25 / 34
2026-09-16	$2.27	$120,438,964,086	25 / 33
2026-09-17	$2.27	$120,438,964,086	24 / 33
2026-09-18	$2.27	$120,438,964,086	24 / 32
2026-09-19	$2.30	$120,438,964,086	24 / 32
2026-09-20	$2.30	$120,438,964,086	24 / 32
2026-09-21	$2.30	$120,438,964,086	24 / 33
2026-09-22	$2.30	$120,422,110,427	24 / 33
2026-09-23	$2.30	$120,422,110,427	24 / 33
2026-09-24	$2.30	$120,422,110,427	24 / 33
2026-09-25	$2.31	$120,617,817,745	24 / 33
2026-09-26	$2.31	$120,617,817,745	24 / 33
2026-09-27	$2.28	$120,412,075,096	24 / 33
2026-09-28	$2.28	$120,412,075,096	25 / 33
2026-09-29	$2.28	$120,412,075,096	25 / 32
2026-09-30	$2.28	$120,431,185,963	24 / 32
2026-10-01	$2.28	$120,431,185,963	24 / 32
2026-10-02	$2.27	$120,456,356,695	24 / 32
2026-10-03	$2.27	$120,456,356,695	24 / 32
2026-10-04	$2.25	$120,571,936,047	24 / 32
2026-10-05	$2.29	$120,608,138,486	24 / 32
2026-10-06	$2.29	$120,608,138,486	24 / 32
2026-10-07	$2.29	$120,608,550,180	24 / 32
2026-10-08	$2.29	$120,608,550,180	24 / 32
2026-10-09	$2.29	$120,664,326,668	24 / 31
2026-10-10	$2.32	$121,236,009,367	24 / 31
2026-10-11	$2.32	$121,272,142,609	24 / 31
2026-10-12	$2.32	$121,272,142,609	24 / 31
2026-10-13	$2.31	$121,176,706,894	24 / 31
2026-10-14	$2.31	$121,176,706,894	23 / 32
2026-10-15	$2.31	$121,175,754,513	23 / 32

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	23	18	7
2026-06-01	23	19	7
2026-07-01	24	19	6
2026-08-01	23	20	6
2026-09-01	22	21	5
2026-10-01	19	21	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 21 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 7 · prior Jul 23

$385.00 → $391.00+1.6%

HSBCOct 5

$157.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsSep 16

$360.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$215.05$430.10

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Ramp AI compute and battery productionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Invest in clean energy and transport infrastructureDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growthRevenue growth: 25.52%
Volume production of Cybercab and Tesla SemiDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Tesla, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. Tesla is focusing on ramping production of new products like the Cybercab and Tesla Semi, while also expanding its AI capabilities and energy storage solutions.

What's priced into Tesla, Inc.

The current valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with a premium of about 15.76%. The market appears to be pricing in the potential for continued growth, but there is an expectation gap given recent performance relative to industry competitors.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are on track as management is executing on key priorities, such as increasing production and expanding AI capabilities. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings estimates, although the probability of this is relatively low.

What Tesla, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including guidance updates from management, inflation trends, and the performance of sector peers like GM and Ford. Any negative guidance or economic headwinds could impact sentiment significantly.