Ford Motor Company (F)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-29
$12.36+3.43%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put F beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMostly healthy — no soft spokes
Ford’s claim rests on profitable operations and cost improvements, despite weak recent performance. Revenue fell year over year in Q2 and Q3, although both quarters beat earnings expectations. The Kentucky investment supports Ford’s goal of $1B in material and warranty cost reductions. Ford trades at 7× P/E versus a 15× peer median, and expectations look modest versus our view. The valuation gap could narrow if cost improvements fail or guidance reverses. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 19%. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% above where it trades; our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. F is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 20 analysts currently covering F (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for F in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare F with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automobile Manufacturers — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put F next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Earnings beat and tighter profit forecast improve confidence in near-term execution and outlook.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $12.36
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $12.36.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Advances: Improve capital efficiency and maintain disciplined investment
Higher 2026 EBIT outlook and an 8% 2029 margin target support profitability and disciplined capital allocation.
Threatens: Improve cost competitiveness with $1B material and warranty cost reductions
Large F-Series recall raises warranty-cost risk, challenging the $1B material and warranty reduction objective.
F-150 depreciation impacts competitive positioning and sales outlook.
Threatens: Achieve adjusted free cash flow target of $6B to $7B in 2026
Losses may hinder achieving free cash flow targets.
Threatens: Increase adjusted EBIT guidance for full-year 2026
Sales dip may hinder growth objectives for 2026.
Advances: Improve cost competitiveness with $1B material and warranty cost reductions
Restarts production enhances cost competitiveness and operational efficiency.
Threatens: Increase adjusted EBIT guidance for full-year 2026
AI windfall hopes impact growth expectations negatively.
