Ford Motor Company (F)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$12.43+0.97%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ford Motor Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.96 → 1.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBIT reaches $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion in 2026	Ford aims to increase adjusted EBIT to $10.5 billion in 2026.	Improving	Adjusted EBIT guidance falls below $8.5 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Capital expenditures stay within $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion in 2026	Capital spending will stay near $10.5 billion.	Intact	Capital expenditures exceed $10.5 billion or fall below $9.5 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Ford has maintained capital expenditure guidance at $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion for full-year 2026 since 2025-Q4. This steady guidance supports ongoing investments in growth areas such as Ford Energy and the Universal Electric Vehicle platform. The consistency in guidance reflects disciplined capital allocation aligned with management's stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Adjusted free cash flow reaches $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion in 2026	Free cash flow should reach $6 billion this year.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $5.0 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Ford raised its adjusted free cash flow guidance for 2026 from $5.0-$6.0 billion in 2026-Q1 to $6.0-$7.0 billion in 2026-Q2. Adjusted free cash flow was $0.2 billion in the first half of 2026, improving from $1.3 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating progress toward the full-year target. The trajectory shows delivering on cash flow improvement as management has committed. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.92

$1.82 → $1.92 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$190.03B

$188.15B → $190.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.82	$188,145,740,568	13 / 9
2026-07-25	$1.82	$177,025,898,440	22 / 10
2026-07-26	$1.82	$188,145,740,568	13 / 9
2026-07-27	$1.82	$178,041,998,580	22 / 11
2026-07-28	$1.82	$188,388,082,218	13 / 9
2026-07-29	$1.86	$188,412,905,307	13 / 9
2026-07-30	$1.83	$178,297,907,670	22 / 11
2026-07-31	$1.94	$188,946,471,974	13 / 9
2026-08-01	$1.94	$188,946,471,974	13 / 9
2026-08-02	$1.90	$178,827,304,120	22 / 11
2026-08-03	$1.90	$178,827,304,120	22 / 11
2026-08-04	$1.94	$188,946,471,974	13 / 9
2026-08-05	$1.90	$180,070,231,390	22 / 11
2026-08-06	$1.94	$188,946,471,974	13 / 9
2026-08-07	$1.95	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-08	$1.90	$180,070,231,390	22 / 11
2026-08-09	$1.90	$180,070,231,390	22 / 11
2026-08-10	$1.90	$180,070,231,390	22 / 11
2026-08-11	$1.90	$180,070,231,390	22 / 11
2026-08-12	$1.95	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-13	$1.95	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-14	$1.95	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-15	$1.95	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-16	$1.95	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-17	$1.95	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-18	$1.95	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-19	$1.95	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-20	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-21	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-22	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-23	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-24	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-25	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-27	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-28	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-29	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-30	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-08-31	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-09-01	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-09-02	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-09-03	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	13 / 9
2026-09-05	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-06	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-07	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-08	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-09	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-10	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-11	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-12	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-13	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-14	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-15	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-16	$1.96	$189,021,071,974	12 / 9
2026-09-17	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	12 / 9
2026-09-18	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	12 / 9
2026-09-19	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	12 / 9
2026-09-20	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-09-21	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-09-22	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-09-23	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-09-24	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-09-25	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-09-27	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-09-28	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-09-29	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-09-30	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-10-01	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-10-02	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-10-03	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.96	$190,434,078,517	11 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.96	$190,434,157,517	11 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.95	$190,434,157,517	11 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.94	$190,223,521,153	11 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.94	$190,223,521,153	11 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.93	$190,191,739,335	11 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.93	$190,191,739,335	11 / 8
2026-10-13	$1.92	$190,031,738,380	11 / 8
2026-10-14	$1.92	$190,031,738,380	11 / 8
2026-10-15	$1.92	$190,031,738,380	11 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	16	1
2026-06-01	6	16	1
2026-07-01	8	15	1
2026-08-01	8	13	1
2026-09-01	8	13	1
2026-10-01	8	12	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 12

$16.00New observation · no comparable prior

Deutsche BankOct 9

$15.00New observation · no comparable prior

Industrial Alliance SecuritiesOct 6

$14.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$8.80$17.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBIT reaches $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Capital expenditures stay within $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted free cash flow reaches $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ford Motor Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving profitability and cash flow. The current thesis state is cautious, given recent weak financial performance and volatile management actions.

What's priced into Ford Motor Company

The market seems to have a neutral view on Ford's valuation, which is considered cheap compared to its peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market is not fully pricing in the potential for improved earnings and cash flow.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has set ambitious targets for adjusted EBIT and free cash flow, showing some progress despite recent weak results. The near-term risk is moderate, with a low probability of missing earnings expectations, but recent industry trends may pose challenges.

What Ford Motor Company hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to deliver on its guidance and navigate sector challenges. Key factors include the performance of industry peers and macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation and interest rates.