NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Ford aims to increase adjusted EBIT to $10.5 billion in 2026. Free cash flow should reach $6 billion this year. Capital spending will stay near $10.5 billion. The company beat EPS by 247% in Q1 2026 despite a guidance cut.
Ford faces many recalls that could hurt profit guidance. Hyundai is gaining U.S. market share, challenging Ford. Management is volatile and recent guidance was cut. The stock is down 22% from its high.
The price is about 37% below our fair value near $22. Analysts expect about 4% revenue decline next year. Our fair value is well above the Street median near $15.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBIT guidance falls below $8.5 billion in FY26
Ford aims to increase its adjusted EBIT guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving profitability and cash flow. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial results have not met industry expectations, despite some positive momentum in earnings and strategic partnerships.
The market appears to price Ford as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. However, there is a premium compared to the average in its sector, indicating some level of confidence in its recovery potential.
Management has shown a commitment to increasing adjusted EBIT and free cash flow, with some progress noted in recent quarters. However, the overall recent financial performance has been weak, which could pose risks if this trend continues.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to deliver on its guidance and the performance of key sector peers like Tesla and GM. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as inflation and interest rates could significantly impact Ford's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company announced plans to shift Lincoln production from China to the U.S. This move is driven by high tariffs and regulatory restrictions, increasing capital spending. However, there are concerns about achieving cost reductions as planned. The regulatory burden on Chinese imports adds higher costs for automakers.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures exceed $10.5 billion or fall below $9.5 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $5.0 billion in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, Ford's performance will depend on its execution against set targets and the broader economic environment. Not investment advice.
