Reading LVWR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LVWR free→Reading LVWR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LVWR free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 716% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. Key factors to watch include any changes in guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like TSLA and GM. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.22, LVWR's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 8× p/s (9.4× the 1× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.13 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 716% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.66x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$431.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,076.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,148.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a smaller loss or a profit compared to the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Strategic partnership with Dust Motorcycles
Acquisition aligns with strategic partnership growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Dust Motorcycles Asset Purchase Agreement On May 18, 2026, LiveWire Group, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into and consummated the transactions contemplated by an Asset Purchase Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Dust Motorcycles, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Seller”), LiveWire EV, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“Purchaser”), and the equity holders of Seller (the “Selling Holders”). Pursuant to th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automobile Manufacturers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LVWR Livewire Group, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 1 of 100 | expensive | high |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
GM General Motors | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
F Ford Motor Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
RIVN Rivian Automotive Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
LiveWire Group has entered into a strategic partnership with Dust Motorcycles to enhance its market position.
LiveWire Group expects an operating loss between $70 million and $80 million for the full year 2026.
LiveWire Group issued shares of Common Stock in reliance on an exemption from registration.
Why it matters: This data will indicate consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales may signal better demand for Livewire's products.
Confirms:Retail sales data shows an increase over the previous month.
Disproves:Retail sales data shows a decrease compared to the previous month.
Cash position may not support operating loss guidance.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 5, 2026, LiveWire Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing the Company’s first quarter results for the financial period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The shares of Common Stock were issued in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), based on representations made by Seller that it is an “accredited investor” as defined in Rule 501 of Regulation D promulgated under the Securities Act, that it is acquiring the shares for investment purposes only and not with a view toward distribution and that it has suffic…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 19, 2026, LiveWire Group, Inc (“the Company”) issued a press release announcing that it has acquired the assets of Dust Motorcycle, Inc. (the “Transaction”). The press release attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 is incorporated by reference and is being furnished to, but not filed with, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The information required by Item 1.01, including a copy of the asset purchase agreement relating to the Tra…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On February 10, 2026, LiveWire Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing the Company’s fourth quarter and full year results for the financial period ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.