Livewire Group, Inc. (LVWR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-10-29
$0.66-26.67%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-10-29
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Put LVWR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Successful integration of Dust Motorcycles partnership: Partnership stalled; CEO resigned & survival warning issued.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 31% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 660% growth a year, above the roughly 24% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 6% on a typical day and fell roughly 88% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskLVWR’s case rests on electric motorcycles scaling, despite weak recent performance. Q2 FY2026 revenue grew 55% year over year, though the company remained unprofitable. LVWR trades at 5.9 times sales versus peers’ 0.8 times. The market expects more growth than our forecast, leaving expectations full. The model puts the next-quarter miss probability at 34%. The CEO resigned, and the partnership stalled, pressuring a primary thesis pillar. Peer multiples imply a price about 660% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. LVWR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVWR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automobile Manufacturers — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put LVWR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Secure financing and pursue strategic alternatives
Spin-off established LiveWire as a standalone company to pursue electric-motorcycle growth and strategic alternatives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Threatens: Secure financing and pursue strategic alternatives
Substantial doubt about continued operations directly threatens financing and the company’s ability to execute its objectives.
CEO resignation and restructuring appointment signal meaningful execution and financial pressure.
Advances: Strategic partnership with Dust Motorcycles
Acquisition aligns with strategic partnership growth objective.
Cash position may not support operating loss guidance.