Livewire Group, Inc. (LVWR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$1.14-7.32%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
LiveWire aims to grow by partnering with Dust Motorcycles. Revenue should reach about $74.5 million in 2025. The acquisition could improve market position. The company has four quarters of cash despite losses.
LiveWire is losing money and cut guidance recently. Cash may not cover losses long. The stock price dropped over 50%. Execution risks remain high.
The market expects about 9% revenue growth. Our fair value matches the low price. The market prices in a weak outlook given losses and recent cuts.
Breaks if: cash runway falls below 3 quarters
Breaks if: revenue falls below $72 million in FY25
partnership progress stalls or reverses
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth scenario. LVWR is attempting to expand its electric motorcycle offerings while facing high risks and recent weak results.
The current valuation reflects a premium compared to peers, indicating that the market has high expectations for LVWR's future performance. However, these expectations may not be fully justified given the company's recent struggles and overall fragility.
Management is focused on increasing electric motorcycle sales, which have shown strong growth recently. However, the overall financial performance has been weak, and the company is currently loss-making, which adds to the uncertainty.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to successfully execute its growth strategies, particularly the expansion into the electric off-road market. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector leaders will play a crucial role in shaping the company's future.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, LVWR's performance will depend on its execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.