Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-29
$11.45-1.89%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put RIVN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 14% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 11%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 49% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskRivian’s R2 launch and ramp must turn vehicle growth into a stronger business. Revenue growth accelerated from 27% in Q2 to 38% in Q3, and the latest quarter beat EPS estimates. Rivian trades at 2.6× sales versus 0.8× for peers, despite trading below its own 3.5× historical multiple. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, though the peer premium still needs support. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 21%. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades; our read remains intact. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. RIVN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 26 analysts currently covering RIVN (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for RIVN in the last 4 months.
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Compare RIVN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIVN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automobile Manufacturers — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put RIVN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase vehicle deliveries to 65,000-70,000 in 2026
Funding progress and strong R2 demand support delivery growth, though neither confirms production execution.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $11.45
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $11.45.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Increase vehicle deliveries to 65,000-70,000 in 2026
2026 delivery outlook aligns with the tracked target; positive automotive gross profit exit rate supports performance.
Advances: Increase vehicle deliveries to 65,000-70,000 in 2026
Raised delivery forecast supports 2026 volume goals, though the headline provides limited detail on R2 ramp.
Threatens: Maintain capital expenditures guidance of $1.70B-$1.80B for 2026
Uncertainty around a major growth loan could pressure funding capacity and the already-behind capex objective.
Advances: Launch and ramp production of R2 mid-size SUV
Showcasing R2 SUV supports growth objective.
Advances: Maintain capital expenditures guidance of $1.70B-$1.80B for 2026
Secures funding to support capital expenditures.
Advances: Launch and ramp production of R2 mid-size SUV
R2 production success boosts growth outlook significantly.
Advances: Increase vehicle deliveries to 65,000-70,000 in 2026
EV sales rebound supports Rivian's delivery growth objective.
