Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-14
$15.86-1.06%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put RIVN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 14% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 12%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 43% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskRivian's growth depends on successfully launching and ramping production of the R2 mid-size SUV. Revenue grew more than 27% year over year, and the last quarter beat expectations. It trades at 3.6× price-to-sales versus a peer median of 0.8×. The price reflects less growth than forecasted, suggesting it looks expensive on this basis. If Rivian cuts guidance on the next call, that could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% below where it trades. This read is provisional; the thesis is on watch due to management running behind on a stated commitment.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. RIVN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 25 analysts currently covering RIVN (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for RIVN in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare RIVN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
Free account required to save the handoff. No credit card.
| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIVN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Automobile Manufacturers — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put RIVN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $(2.00)B-$(1.80)B in 2026
Profit target sacrifice may hinder EBITDA goals.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $15.86
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $15.86.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Increased competition from Chinese EV makers could impact Rivian's market share.
Advances: Launch and ramp production of R2 mid-size SUV
R2 production ramp is critical for growth objectives.
CFO departure raises concerns about execution on objectives.
CFO departure may disrupt financial strategy execution.
CFO departure may disrupt strategic execution.
CFO departure raises concerns about management stability.
Advances: Increase vehicle deliveries to 65,000-70,000 in 2026
Raising delivery guidance supports growth objectives.
