Reading RIVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RIVN free→
Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$15.93-4.50%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, RIVN is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 320% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Auto Manufacturers
- Market cap
- $21.81B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2021-10-01
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$3.79consensus
Range $3.79 – $3.79
vs price: +320% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$17.97consensus
Range $17.97 – $17.97
vs price: -11% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $17, RIVN's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 3× p/s (3.7× the 1× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~271% near-term growth vs our ~40% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $4.50 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $13–$20. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
3.4x
peer 0.9x · own history —
Premium
3.7x peer
Growth the price needs
271%
our forecast 40%
Our fair value
$4.50
range $4.50 – $4.50
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 271% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 40%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
17th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.37x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish14 analysts, 44% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.77 → $-0.77 (-0.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 6 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme value-trade-down.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$257.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$538.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,254.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1615h agoYahoo! Finance
Threatens: Increase vehicle deliveries to 62,000-67,000 in 2026
Job cuts may hinder vehicle delivery growth.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TSLA, GM, and F keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting RIVN and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If RIVN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If RIVN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like TSLA, GM, and F start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping RIVN and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits RIVN and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 1.01
does not purport to be complete and is qualified in its entirety by reference to the A&R LARSSA. The proceeds of advances under the Amended DOE Loan (both the Note A Loan and the Note B Loan) will be used to support the development of the first phase of 300,000 units of annual production capacity at an electric vehicle manufacturing facility in Stanton Springs North, near the City of Social Circle, Georgia (the “ Project ”). The Borrower may request advances under the Amended DOE Loan for pur…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+20 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.