Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-09
$16.01-0.99%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Rivian aims to deliver 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles in 2026. It plans to spend about $2 billion on capital projects this year. The company targets adjusted EBITDA losses between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion in 2026. Strong delivery growth could improve its financial health.
Rivian is losing money and recently cut guidance. Its share offering may dilute value. Deliveries have stalled, risking growth targets. Capital spending might be pressured by funding needs.
The stock trades about 45% above our fair value near $11. Analysts expect 65% revenue growth. Our fair value is 24% below the Street median of $15. The market prices strong growth but risks remain.
Breaks if: loss exceeds $(2.10)B in 2026
Target adjusted EBITDA loss reduction to between $(2.00) billion and $(1.80) billion for full year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity in the electric vehicle sector. The current thesis state is cautious, given recent weak financial performance and a volatile management track record.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that it anticipates continued challenges. RIVN's valuation shows a premium compared to peers, suggesting that investors are aware of its optionality but are also cautious about its fragility.
Management has set ambitious targets for vehicle deliveries and adjusted EBITDA, with some progress noted. However, recent financial performance remains weak, and the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which adds to the uncertainty.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to meet delivery and EBITDA targets, the performance of sector leaders like TSLA and GM, and macroeconomic conditions such as inflation and interest rates.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Rivian's latest earnings beat supports this view. The company maintained its capital expenditures guidance for 2026. It is also ramping up production of the R2 mid-size SUV. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA improved from $(667) million in 2025-Q2 to $(379) million in 2026-Q2. The company maintains full year 2026 guidance of $(2.00)B to $(1.80)B adjusted EBITDA loss. The trajectory shows improvement and partial delivery.
“Adjusted EBITDA improved by $50 million at the mid-point due to better than expected revenue related to regulatory credits and increasing delivery volumes.”
“2026 Annual Guidance Summary Adjusted EBITDA $(2.10) billion - $(1.80) billion”
“Adjusted EBITDA $(2.10) billion - $(1.80) billion”
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $2.05B or falls below $1.95B in 2026
Breaks if: deliveries fall below 62,000 vehicles in 2026
Raise full-year 2026 vehicle delivery guidance to 65,000-70,000 units driven by R2 launch and production ramp.
Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Vehicle deliveries increased from 10,365 in 2026-Q1 to 12,194 in 2026-Q2. The company raised its full year 2026 delivery guidance by 3,000 units to 65,000-70,000. The trajectory is delivering with increased production and raised guidance.
“The company is today raising its full year 2026 delivery guidance from 62,000 - 67,000 vehicles, to 65,000 - 70,000.”
“2026 Annual Guidance Summary Current Outlook Vehicles Delivered 62,000 - 67,000”
“Today the company is narrowing its 2025 delivery guidance range to 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RIVN's performance will depend on its execution against targets and broader market dynamics. Not investment advice.