Reading GM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GM free→
General Motors (GM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$82.53-1.83%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on sector trends, particularly if bellwethers like TSLA, F, and RIVN continue to perform well or if GM cuts guidance after a recent raise, which could impact credibility. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Auto Manufacturers
- Market cap
- $73.49B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2010-11-18
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $82.53. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$209.32consensus
Range $100.82 – $234.43
vs price: -61% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$441.40consensus
Range $323.46 – $543.57
vs price: -81% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $84 GM trades at 15× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $222 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $59–$105. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
15.5x
peer 18.5x · own history 5.9x
Premium
0.8x peer
2.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
-62%
our forecast 9%
Our fair value
$222.28
range $101.81 – $242.53
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
32nd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 9.06x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
94th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish17 analysts, 74% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.24 → $3.19 (-1.6% / 30d). 6 raised, 11 cut, 17 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 74% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$305.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,600.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
The signal label changed, indicating a shift from a mixed outlook to a mildly favorable one. Risk fell, suggesting a decrease in perceived volatility. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, which may impact performance. The valuation is described as cheap, with peer multiples implying a price significantly above the current trading level.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for GM's quarterly dividend announcement in June 2026
Why it matters: The dividend shows GM's promise to give money back to shareholders. It shows financial strength.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:GM declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share or higher.
Disproves:Dividend declared is less than $0.18 per share.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1615h agoTechRadar
Advances: Focus on electric vehicle (EV) expansion
Na-based batteries enhance GM's EV expansion strategy.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for June retail sales growth to turn positive
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TSLA, F, and RIVN keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting GM and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GM beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +40% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If GM reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-28), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like TSLA, F, and RIVN start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping GM and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits GM and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2622d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 26, 2026, Jonathan McNeill, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of General Motors Company (the “Company”), notified the Board that he will not stand for reelection as a director at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders to be held on June 2, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”) and will retire from the Board upon the conclusio…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.