General Motors (GM)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$83.96+0.36%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge General Motors’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

15.04 → 15.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain or increase dividend payments	A supporting condition in General Motors's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.18 USD_PER_SHARE.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.15	Dividend per share: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.18 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 00e31b21-6ccc-4cc6-a943-a44e6489ac2a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.15 in 2025-Q3 to $0.18 in 2025-Q4 and maintained through 2026-Q2. Management has consistently declared and increased dividends, delivering on capital return commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS growth to at least $12.5 per share in FY26	A primary condition in General Motors's published investment case. The stated target is >=12.5 USD_PER_SHARE.	Broken	EPS falls below $11.0 per share in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.41 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12.5 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 20261.41 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 00e31b21-6ccc-4cc6-a943-a44e6489ac2a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain leadership in electric vehicle sales and secure supply deals	The company leads in electric vehicle sales and secured key chip supply deals.	Under Pressure	EV sales decline significantly or supply deals fail	EV sales falling hard vs maintain/grow target GM EV sales falling hard; BYD widens gap; MP Materials secures rare earth magnets. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management consistently emphasizes EV expansion as a strategic priority. While revenue and EBIT-adjusted show modest growth, the EV focus is persistent but financials do not isolate EV-specific metrics, indicating recurring focus with limited direct financial proof. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow of about $10 billion in FY26	Free cash flow is strong at about $10 billion.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $9 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $4.412B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~10 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 20264,412,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$15.24

$14.89 → $15.24 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$189.82B

$191.05B → $189.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.89	$191,050,851,659	15 / 16
2026-07-25	$14.89	$191,050,851,659	15 / 16
2026-07-26	$14.54	$190,549,273,950	25 / 20
2026-07-27	$14.89	$191,050,851,659	15 / 16
2026-07-28	$14.54	$190,549,273,950	25 / 20
2026-07-29	$14.94	$190,796,794,442	16 / 16
2026-07-30	$14.59	$190,320,623,950	25 / 20
2026-07-31	$14.71	$190,461,451,380	26 / 21
2026-08-01	$15.04	$190,927,384,208	16 / 17
2026-08-02	$14.71	$190,461,451,380	26 / 21
2026-08-03	$14.71	$190,461,451,380	26 / 21
2026-08-04	$14.71	$190,461,451,380	26 / 21
2026-08-05	$14.71	$190,460,022,810	26 / 21
2026-08-06	$14.71	$190,460,022,810	26 / 21
2026-08-07	$14.96	$190,925,821,249	16 / 17
2026-08-08	$14.71	$190,460,022,810	26 / 21
2026-08-09	$14.71	$190,460,022,810	26 / 21
2026-08-10	$14.71	$190,460,022,810	26 / 21
2026-08-12	$14.96	$190,925,821,249	16 / 17
2026-08-13	$14.96	$190,925,821,249	16 / 17
2026-08-14	$14.96	$190,925,821,249	16 / 17
2026-08-15	$14.96	$190,925,821,249	16 / 17
2026-08-16	$14.96	$190,925,821,249	16 / 17
2026-08-17	$14.96	$190,925,821,249	16 / 17
2026-08-18	$14.96	$190,925,821,249	16 / 17
2026-08-19	$14.96	$190,925,821,249	16 / 17
2026-08-20	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	16 / 17
2026-08-21	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	16 / 16
2026-08-22	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-08-23	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-08-24	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-08-25	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-08-26	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-08-27	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-08-28	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-08-29	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-08-30	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-08-31	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-09-01	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-09-02	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-09-03	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-09-04	$15.01	$190,738,355,763	15 / 16
2026-09-05	$15.00	$190,137,376,690	15 / 16
2026-09-06	$15.00	$190,137,376,690	15 / 16
2026-09-07	$15.04	$189,958,837,733	15 / 15
2026-09-08	$15.04	$189,958,837,733	15 / 15
2026-09-09	$15.04	$189,958,837,733	15 / 15
2026-09-10	$15.04	$189,958,837,733	15 / 15
2026-09-11	$15.04	$189,958,837,733	15 / 15
2026-09-12	$15.04	$189,958,837,733	15 / 15
2026-09-13	$15.04	$189,958,837,733	15 / 15
2026-09-14	$15.04	$189,958,837,733	15 / 15
2026-09-15	$15.04	$189,996,337,733	15 / 15
2026-09-16	$15.04	$189,996,337,733	15 / 15
2026-09-17	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	15 / 15
2026-09-18	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	15 / 15
2026-09-19	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	15 / 15
2026-09-20	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 15
2026-09-21	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 15
2026-09-22	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 15
2026-09-23	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 15
2026-09-24	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 15
2026-09-25	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 14
2026-09-26	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 14
2026-09-27	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 14
2026-09-28	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 14
2026-09-29	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 13
2026-09-30	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 13
2026-10-01	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 13
2026-10-02	$15.24	$189,996,337,733	14 / 13
2026-10-03	$15.18	$189,996,337,733	14 / 13
2026-10-04	$15.18	$189,996,337,733	14 / 13
2026-10-05	$15.18	$189,996,337,733	14 / 13
2026-10-06	$15.18	$189,996,337,733	14 / 13
2026-10-07	$15.21	$189,998,526,920	14 / 13
2026-10-08	$15.26	$189,863,402,127	14 / 13
2026-10-09	$15.25	$189,841,284,480	14 / 13
2026-10-10	$15.25	$189,841,284,480	14 / 13
2026-10-11	$15.25	$189,841,284,480	14 / 13
2026-10-12	$15.25	$189,841,284,480	14 / 13
2026-10-13	$15.24	$189,820,985,545	13 / 13
2026-10-14	$15.24	$189,820,985,545	13 / 13
2026-10-15	$15.24	$189,820,985,545	13 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	20	5	2
2026-06-01	20	5	2
2026-07-01	22	5	2
2026-08-01	22	4	2
2026-09-01	22	4	1
2026-10-01	20	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 12 · prior Jul 22

$100.00 → $102.00+2.0%

Deutsche BankOct 9 · prior Jul 22

$100.00 → $101.00+1.0%

UBSOct 7 · prior Sep 24

$33.00 → $112.00+239.4%

Truist FinancialOct 7

$105.00New observation · no comparable prior

Industrial Alliance SecuritiesOct 6

$112.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$61.60$123.20

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or increase dividend paymentsDividend per share: $0.18 per share
EPS growth to at least $12.5 per share in FY26Published status: Broken
Sustain leadership in electric vehicle sales and secure supply dealsPublished status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow of about $10 billion in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

General Motors outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on electric vehicle expansion. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has not outpaced industry peers, but management is raising guidance and maintaining dividends.

What's priced into General Motors

The valuation suggests GM is considered cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. The market appears to have priced in some level of operational improvement but remains cautious due to sector headwinds.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to show gradual improvement as management executes on guidance and maintains dividend payments. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially as industry peers have faced challenges recently.

What General Motors hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including the ability to maintain raised guidance, the performance of sector leaders like Tesla and Ford, and the impact of inflation on consumer spending. Any reversal in guidance or economic headwinds could negatively affect sentiment.