Planet Fitness (PLNT)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$52.52-1.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Planet Fitness’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.66 → 3.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	372.19M
EPS	—	0.826
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.42B
EPS	—	3.251
Revenue growth	About 7%	—
System-wide same club revenue growth	About 1%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	3.657

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Open approximately 180 to 190 new clubs system-wide in 2026	They plan to open around 185 new clubs this year.	Intact	new club openings fall below 160 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management targets opening approximately 180 to 190 new clubs in 2026. Actual openings were 15 in 2026-Q1 and 23 in 2026-Q2, totaling 38 new clubs in half a year, consistent with the annual target trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of approximately 7% in 2026	A primary condition in Planet Fitness's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26	Revenue growth: 7.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20267.141537 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 10cfa702-b508-43b4-829e-4a08f49b81f6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.3 billion in 2025 to $1.4 billion expected in 2026, an approximately 7% increase. Management updated the growth expectation downward from 9% to 7% in 2026-Q1 but has reiterated the 7% target since, indicating delivery on a moderated growth trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
System-wide same club sales growth of approximately 1% in 2026	A supporting condition in Planet Fitness's published investment case. The stated target is >=1% YoY.	Intact	same club sales growth falls below 0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management lowered the system-wide same club sales growth target from 4-5% to approximately 1% in 2026-Q1 and reiterated it in 2026-Q2. Actual same club sales grew 3.5% in 2026-Q1 and 1.7% in 2026-Q2, showing a declining trajectory but still positive growth, consistent with the updated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.66

$3.60 → $3.66 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.52B

$1.53B → $1.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.60	$1,529,036,266	11 / 15
2026-07-25	$3.58	$1,526,569,050	17 / 19
2026-07-26	$3.58	$1,526,569,050	17 / 19
2026-07-27	$3.58	$1,526,569,050	17 / 19
2026-07-28	$3.58	$1,526,569,050	17 / 19
2026-07-29	$3.58	$1,525,138,687	11 / 15
2026-07-30	$3.58	$1,525,138,687	11 / 15
2026-07-31	$3.58	$1,525,138,687	11 / 15
2026-08-01	$3.58	$1,525,138,687	11 / 15
2026-08-02	$3.59	$1,528,265,600	18 / 20
2026-08-03	$3.59	$1,528,265,600	18 / 20
2026-08-04	$3.59	$1,527,026,124	12 / 15
2026-08-05	$3.59	$1,527,026,124	12 / 15
2026-08-06	$3.59	$1,527,026,124	12 / 15
2026-08-07	$3.60	$1,527,351,298	12 / 15
2026-08-08	$3.64	$1,528,366,490	17 / 18
2026-08-09	$3.64	$1,528,366,490	17 / 18
2026-08-10	$3.64	$1,528,366,490	17 / 18
2026-08-12	$3.64	$1,522,441,610	17 / 19
2026-08-13	$3.64	$1,522,441,610	17 / 19
2026-08-14	$3.60	$1,527,351,298	12 / 15
2026-08-15	$3.60	$1,527,351,298	12 / 15
2026-08-16	$3.60	$1,527,351,298	12 / 15
2026-08-17	$3.60	$1,527,351,298	12 / 15
2026-08-18	$3.60	$1,527,351,298	12 / 15
2026-08-19	$3.60	$1,527,351,298	12 / 15
2026-08-20	$3.65	$1,522,992,064	12 / 15
2026-08-21	$3.65	$1,522,992,064	12 / 15
2026-08-22	$3.65	$1,522,992,064	12 / 15
2026-08-23	$3.64	$1,522,654,860	12 / 15
2026-08-24	$3.64	$1,522,654,860	12 / 15
2026-08-25	$3.64	$1,522,654,860	12 / 15
2026-08-26	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-08-27	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-08-28	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-08-29	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-08-30	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-08-31	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-01	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-02	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-03	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-04	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-05	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-06	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-07	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-08	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-09	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-10	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-11	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-12	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-13	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-14	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-15	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-16	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-17	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-18	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-19	$3.66	$1,523,895,324	12 / 15
2026-09-20	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-09-21	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-09-22	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-09-23	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-09-24	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-09-25	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-09-26	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-09-27	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-09-28	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-09-29	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-09-30	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-01	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-02	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-03	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-04	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-05	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-06	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-07	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-08	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-09	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-10	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-11	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-12	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-13	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-14	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-15	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-16	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-17	$3.66	$1,522,311,113	12 / 15
2026-10-18	$3.66	$1,523,783,953	12 / 14
2026-10-19	$3.66	$1,523,783,953	11 / 14
2026-10-20	$3.66	$1,523,783,953	11 / 14
2026-10-21	$3.66	$1,523,783,953	11 / 14
2026-10-22	$3.66	$1,523,783,953	11 / 14
2026-10-23	$3.66	$1,523,783,953	11 / 14
2026-10-24	$3.66	$1,524,819,104	11 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	17	7
2026-06-01	12	7
2026-07-01	12	7
2026-08-01	12	7
2026-09-01	12	6
2026-10-01	12	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Open approximately 180 to 190 new clubs system-wide in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth of approximately 7% in 2026Revenue growth: 7.14%
System-wide same club sales growth of approximately 1% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-63.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Planet Fitness outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PLNT is a growth-oriented consumer discretionary business whose multi-year view depends on continued revenue growth and club investment. The thesis is intact, though recent performance is mixed: revenue growth remains on track at a lower rate, while same-club sales growth has slowed.

What's priced into Planet Fitness

The evidence tags expectations as justified, with low fragility and a modest negative expectations gap. It does not provide peer valuation data, so whether PLNT is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is targeting approximately 7% revenue growth in 2026 and has reiterated that goal after lowering it from 9%. Same-club sales growth has eased from 3.5% in the first quarter to 1.7% in the second, while management’s updated full-year goal is about 1%; higher capital spending adds execution risk. Recent earnings beats and a risk label that moved from high to elevated are supportive, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.

What Planet Fitness hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on delivery against moderated growth goals and whether increased investment in corporate-owned clubs supports the business. Near term, PLNT’s setup also depends on guidance and sector signals: continued strength from bellwethers could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that tailwind.