Reading NWL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NWL free→Reading NWL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NWL free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with NWL trading below typical for its sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include the potential for guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like AMZN and TSLA. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.76 NWL trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $8.78 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $3.50–$9.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 46% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.87x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.25 → $0.19 (-23.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 9 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -1.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$240.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$456.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,133.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If core sales grow, it shows the company's recovery plan is working. It also means more people want to buy.
Confirms:Q2 core sales growth reported above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 core sales growth reported below -2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NWL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As described in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$3.50 – $9.00 (median $4.25) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-20
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NWL Newell Brands | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -2.9% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Aim to improve cash flow from operations through strategic initiatives.
Continue to maintain a stable dividend payout to shareholders.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Newell is doing and what to expect.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings beat expectations by more than 10%.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings miss expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show good financial health. This helps build trust with investors.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at $0.07 for Q2.
Disproves:Dividend per share decreases from $0.07.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is managing costs well. This helps improve cash flow.
Confirms:In Q2, the company made more than $34 million in operating income.
Disproves:In Q2, the company made less than $20 million in operating income.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is working more efficiently. This is key for good finances.
Confirms:Q2 operating cash flow was over $100 million.
Disproves:Q2 operating cash flow was under $50 million.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will provide insight into consumer spending trends. This can impact Newell's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth reported above 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth reported below 0% month over month.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is a key priority for Newell Brands. It shows better cost management.
Confirms:Q2 operating income increases year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:Q2 operating income declines year over year or stays flat.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend is key for investor trust. It shows financial strength.
Confirms:The announcement shows the dividend payout will stay the same or go up.
Disproves:The announcement shows a dividend cut or stop.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, Newell Brands Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, including additional financial information, to report the Company’s earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, which is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incor…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 6, 2026, Newell Brands Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, including additional financial information, to report the Company’s earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, which is attached to this report as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall i…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan On February 9, 2026, the Compensation and Human Capital Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Newell Brands Inc. (the “Company”) approved the 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan Terms and Conditions (the “LTIP”), pursuant to which the Company makes annual long-term incentive awards based on sh…