Newell Brands (NWL)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.36-6.46%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Newell Brands’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.69 → 0.69 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$0.18–$0.2	—
Operating margin	9.5%–10.2%	—
Revenue growth	2%–3%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.93B
EPS	—	0.19
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.33B
EPS	$0.73–$0.77	0.761
Operating margin	10%–10.4%	—
Revenue growth	1%–2%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.44B
EPS	—	0.686

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash flow from operations	Newell Brands aims to improve cash flow from operations.	Under Pressure	Cash flow from operations remains negative through FY26	Cash from operations: $29M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash flow from operations by FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 202629,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain stable dividend payout at $0.07 per share	Dividend payout stayed stable at $0.07 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.07 in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.07 through FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45babcb1-9db1-4b88-bcca-6bcde8f72d1a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS of about $0.58 per share	Management raised full-year EPS to about $0.58.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $0.54 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.58 per share in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45babcb1-9db1-4b88-bcca-6bcde8f72d1a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain flat to slight revenue growth	A supporting condition in Newell Brands's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth between -1% and +1% in FY26.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below -1% in FY26	Revenue growth: 3.05% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth between -1% and +1% in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20263.049096 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 45babcb1-9db1-4b88-bcca-6bcde8f72d1a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.69

$0.67 → $0.69 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.44B

$7.40B → $7.44B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.67	$7,404,281,650	9 / 8
2026-07-25	$0.67	$7,405,781,650	9 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.67	$7,405,781,650	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.67	$7,405,781,650	9 / 8
2026-07-28	$0.67	$7,405,781,650	9 / 8
2026-07-29	$0.67	$7,405,812,722	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.67	$7,405,781,650	9 / 8
2026-07-31	$0.67	$7,405,781,650	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.67	$7,405,812,722	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.68	$7,415,135,060	9 / 8
2026-08-03	$0.68	$7,415,135,060	9 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.68	$7,415,135,060	9 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.67	$7,418,592,591	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.67	$7,418,592,591	5 / 7
2026-08-07	$0.67	$7,418,592,591	5 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.67	$7,418,592,591	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.69	$7,438,106,010	9 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.69	$7,438,106,010	9 / 8
2026-08-12	$0.69	$7,438,106,010	9 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.69	$7,438,106,010	9 / 8
2026-08-14	$0.67	$7,418,592,591	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.67	$7,418,592,591	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.67	$7,418,592,591	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.67	$7,418,592,591	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.67	$7,418,592,591	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.67	$7,418,592,591	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.69	$7,438,171,291	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.69	$7,438,155,179	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.69	$7,442,774,118	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$0.69	$7,442,774,118	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$0.69	$7,444,174,118	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$0.69	$7,444,174,118	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$0.69	$7,444,174,118	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$0.69	$7,444,174,118	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$0.69	$7,444,174,118	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$0.69	$7,444,174,118	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$0.69	$7,442,190,230	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	6	1
2026-06-01	3	5	1
2026-07-01	3	5	1
2026-08-01	3	5	1
2026-09-01	3	5	1
2026-10-01	3	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash flow from operationsPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain stable dividend payout at $0.07 per shareDividend per share: $0.07 per share
Achieve EPS of about $0.58 per sharePublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain flat to slight revenue growthRevenue growth: 3.05%

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Newell Brands outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround-style thesis with elevated risk, not a durable compounder today. Its state is watch: recent financial performance is neutral, management execution is volatile, and company momentum has weakened.

What's priced into Newell Brands

NWL is described as cheap versus peers, while the overall pricing signal is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests expectations are not especially demanding, but the evidence does not establish what specific operating outcome the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the near term, the key task is turning the stated goal of sales growth and profitable growth into results. Operating improvement is mixed: first-quarter 2026 GAAP operating income rose year over year, while normalized margin was lower than the prior quarter; the higher cash-flow outlook is not yet verified by supplied quarterly data. The CEO transition and recent decline in company momentum add uncertainty.

What Newell Brands hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on sustained sales growth, better margins, and delivery on the 2026 operating cash-flow commitment. A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the case, while continued strength from consumer-discretionary bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.