Reading NDLS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NDLS free→Reading NDLS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NDLS free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 83% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 NDLS trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $83 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 83% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.25x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.08 → $-0.05 (+37.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$306.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$794.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,582.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will provide insight into consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales could indicate a better environment for Noodles & Co.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth reported above 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth reported below 0% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NDLS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Noodles & Company issued a press release disclosing earnings and other financial results for its fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026, and that as previously announced, its management would review these results in a conference call at 4:30 p.m. (EST) on May 6, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished with this report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed”…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NDLS Noodles & Co | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has raised its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $478M-$493M in 2025-Q4 to $483M-$498M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows management's commitment to growth, with revenue rising from $122.776M in 2025-Q4 to $123.786M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress.
“We are raising its revenue, restaurant level contribution margin and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026.”
“Full Year 2026 Total revenue of $478 million to $493 million, including comparable restaurant sales growth of 6.0% to 9.0%;”
Management has raised its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $30M-$35M in 2025-Q4 to $30M-$35M in 2026-Q1. Despite the increase in guidance, operating income remains negative, with a slight improvement from -$4.105M in 2025-Q4 to -$0.812M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress.
Management has raised its gross margin guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Gross margin guidance increased to 15.5%-17.0% for 2026. However, the financials show a net income loss of -$3.417M in 2026-Q1, indicating that while the guidance is optimistic, the current financial performance is still challenging.
Why it matters: This report will show if the company can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery from loss-making status.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a positive EBITDA margin or revenue growth year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued losses or revenue decline year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 25, 2026, Noodles & Company (the "Company") issued a press release disclosing earnings and other financial results for its fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 30, 2025, and that as previously announced, its management would review these results in a conference call at 4:30 p.m. (EST) on March 25, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 24, 2026, Mr. Robert Hartnett and Ms. Mary Egan, each a Class I member of the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Noodles & Company, Inc. (the "Company"), notified the Board of their decisions not to stand for re-election at the Company's 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. Hartnett and Ms. Egan will continue to…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K is therefore intended to be automatically incorporated by reference into each of the active registration statements listed above, thereby amending them. Pursuant to Rule 416(b) under the Securities Act, the amount of undistributed shares of Common Stock deemed to be covered by the effective registration statements of the Company described above are proportionately reduced as of the Effective Time to give effect to the Reverse Stock Split. Cautionary Note Reg…
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. To the extent required by
“We are raising its revenue, restaurant level contribution margin and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA of $30 million to $35 million;”
“We are raising its revenue, restaurant level contribution margin and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026.”