Reading NATH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NATH free→Reading NATH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NATH free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NATH is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $101.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $102 NATH trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $93 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 10% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -41.7% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$16.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$255.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,942.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales trends show how much people want to buy. This affects Nathan's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows an increase in consumer spending month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decrease in consumer spending month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NATH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 9, 2026, Nathan's Famous, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended March 29, 2026. The entire text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Restaurants.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NATH Nathan's Famous, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | full | moderate |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
SBUX Starbucks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
YUM Yum! Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | full | moderate |
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining profitability while achieving revenue growth.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $30.79M in 2025-Q4 to $35.07M in 2026-Q4, while net income was $2.81M in 2026-Q4. The company is delivering on its focus on profitability and revenue growth.
“CEO: 'We continue to focus on maintaining profitability and growing our revenue.'”
“CEO: 'Our strategy remains centered on profitability and revenue growth.'”
“CEO: 'We are committed to sustaining profitability and increasing revenue.'”
“CEO: 'Profitability and revenue growth are our key objectives.'”
Improve operational efficiency to support profitability and growth.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was $4.68M in 2026-Q4, indicating efforts to enhance operational efficiency. However, the trajectory shows limited progress as operating income decreased from $5.13M in 2026-Q3.
“CFO: 'We are working on enhancing operational efficiency to support our profitability.'”
Complete the acquisition by Smithfield Foods to enhance strategic positioning.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by Smithfield Foods, marking a strategic shift. The acquisition is expected to enhance strategic positioning, but no financial impact is yet visible in the current data.
“Company announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by Smithfield Foods.”
Why it matters: Revenue growth or decline will indicate how well Nathan's Famous is performing in a tough market.
Confirms one read:Q4 revenue results show growth year over year, exceeding prior results.
Confirms the other:Q4 revenue results decline year over year, falling below prior results.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can mean the economy is weak. This can lower consumer spending.
Confirms:Unemployment claims data shows a decrease week over week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims data shows an increase week over week.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Nathan's Famous, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for its third fiscal quarter ended December 28, 2025. The entire text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Introduction On January 20, 2026, Nathan’s Famous, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement, as more fully described below, to be acquired by Smithfield Foods, Inc, a Virginia corporation (“Buyer”). Merger Agreement On January 20, 2026, the Company entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Buyer and Boardwalk Merger Sub Inc., a Delaware corporation and wh…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 20, 2026, the Company entered into letter agreements (each a “Retention Agreement”) with each of Eric Gatoff, the Chief Executive Officer of the Company, and Robert Steinberg, the Chief Financial Officer of the Company. Under the Retention Agreements, each such individual is entitled to a cash retention bonus payment if (1) such individu…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, Nathan's Famous, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for its second fiscal quarter ended September 28, 2025. The entire text of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
“CFO: 'Operational efficiency remains a key focus for us.'”
“CFO: 'Improving operational efficiency is crucial for our growth.'”